Global| Jul 27 2017U.S. Durable Goods Orders Jump; Aircraft Orders Soar
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods strengthened 6.5% (16.1% y/y) during June following a 0.1% May slip, revised from -1.1%. A 2.8% increase in orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise in orders reflected [...]
New orders for durable goods strengthened 6.5% (16.1% y/y) during June following a 0.1% May slip, revised from -1.1%. A 2.8% increase in orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The rise in orders reflected strength in bookings for nondefense aircraft & parts which more than doubled m/m. It lifted nondefense capital goods orders by 21.0% (38.4% y/y) following declines during the prior two months. Less aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders eased 0.1% (+5.6% y/y) following a 0.7% improvement. A 19.0 rise (36.1% y/y) in transportation sector orders also reflected a 0.6% decline (+3.2% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts orders.
Outside of the transportation sector, durable goods orders improved 0.2%. That lifted y/y growth to 6.8%, up from the declining trend in place during 2015 and 2016. Fabricated metals orders rose 0.7% (10.4% y/y) while primary metals orders ticked 0.1% higher (11.7% y/y). Machinery orders gained 0.2% (10.5% y/y) following a 2.3% jump, but electrical equipment orders fell 1.7% (+2.1% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products slipped 0.3% (+2.3% y/y) for the second straight month as orders for computers & related products eased 0.2% (+0.5% y/y), the third decline in the last four months. Communications equipment orders strengthened 1.6% (-3.7% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods were little changed (+4.3% y/y) last month. Declines also were logged in 2015 and 2016. Excluding transportation, shipments improved 0.2% (5.4% y/y). Unfilled orders jumped 1.3% (0.7% y/y) owing to the strength in aircraft. Excluding the transportation sector, backlogs improved 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Inventories of durable goods rose 0.4% (2.3% y/y), the largest monthly increase since July. Excluding transportation, inventories jumped 0.7% (3.9% y/y) following y/y decumulation through the end of last year.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 6.5 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 16.1 | -1.7 | -4.6 | 4.7 |
| Transportation | 19.0 | -1.6 | -1.6 | 36.1 | -3.4 | -6.2 | 8.2 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 6.8 | -0.7 | -3.6 | 2.9 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 21.0 | -0.2 | -2.4 | 38.4 | -7.1 | -11.0 | 0.9 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 5.6 | -4.6 | -4.3 | 0.3 |
| Shipments | -0.0 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 4.3 | -1.6 | -0.6 | 3.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -1.7 | -2.0 | 8.3 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | -0.7 | 1.6 | 4.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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