Global| Aug 25 2016U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Is Broad-Based
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods rose 4.4% during July (-3.3% y/y) following a 4.2% June decline, revised from -3.9%. A 3.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise in orders was led by a 10.5% jump [...]
New orders for durable goods rose 4.4% during July (-3.3% y/y) following a 4.2% June decline, revised from -3.9%. A 3.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The rise in orders was led by a 10.5% jump (-7.9% y/y) in orders for transportation equipment. Nondefense aircraft & parts orders surged 89.9% (-21.1% y/y) following a 59.7% drop. Defense aircraft bookings gained 20.3% (-4.5% y/y) after three months of sharp decline. Motor vehicle & parts orders remained little changed (-2.1% y/y), and have been moving sideways for a year.
Orders outside of the transportation sector increased 1.5% (-0.6% y/y) to the highest level since January. Nevertheless, orders remained 4.6% below the mid-2014 peak. Orders for computers & electronic products increased 3.6% (3.5% y/y) as computers & related product orders rose 10.3% (-9.2% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance orders gained 2.6% (-4.9% y/y) and machinery orders rose 1.6% (-5.3% y/y). Fabricated metal orders rose 1.5% (3.3% y/y) while primary metal orders improved 1.4% (-4.1% y/y).
Nondefense capital goods orders rebounded 10.2% (-8.6% y/y) following two months of sharp decline. Orders excluding aircraft recovered 1.6% (-4.9% y/y) to the highest level in six months.
Shipments of durable goods improved 0.2%, but also have been moving sideways since late last year. Shipments outside of the transportation sector improved 0.4% (-1.4% y/y) following several months of little change. Unfilled orders of durable goods were roughly unchanged (-2.1% y/y), but rose 0.3% (0.2% y/y) excluding transportation to the highest level since April of last year. Inventories increased 0.3% (-2.6% y/y) to the highest level in tree months. Outside of transportation inventories rose 0.3% (-3.2% y/y), only the second rise since early last year.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 4.4 | -4.2 | -2.9 | -3.3 | -2.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 |
| Transportation | 10.5 | -11.4 | -7.1 | -7.9 | -4.0 | 6.8 | 8.8 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 1.5 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -2.3 | 3.8 | -0.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 10.2 | -10.9 | -1.7 | -8.6 | -9.6 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.6 | 0.5 | -0.6 | -4.9 | -3.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Shipments | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -2.1 | -2.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -2.6 | -0.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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