Global| Jun 26 2019U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase; Core Capital Goods Orders Improve
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Activity in the manufacturing sector improved during May. New orders for durable goods increased 1.3% (-2.8% y/y) following a 2.8% April decline, revised from -2.1%. A 0.1% easing in May orders had been expected in the Action [...]
Activity in the manufacturing sector improved during May. New orders for durable goods increased 1.3% (-2.8% y/y) following a 2.8% April decline, revised from -2.1%. A 0.1% easing in May orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 4.6% decline (-8.4% y/y) in transportation sector orders prompted the decline in total new orders and added to a 7.6% April drop. Nondefense aircraft & parts orders fell more than one-quarter m/m. Defense aircraft orders fell 15.3% (-11.7% y/y). New orders for motor vehicles & parts improved 0.6% (9.1% y/y) following a 3.2% decline.
Orders for nondefense capital goods weakened 2.3% (-9.7% y/y) and added to the prior month's 6.9% drop. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.4% (1.3% y/y) following a 1.0% weakening.
Elsewhere in the durable goods report it was indicated that primary metals orders rose 0.4% (-5.9% y/y), but orders for fabricated metals eased 0.4% (-0.5% y/y). Orders for computers & related products rose 0.8% (4.6% y/y. Communication equipment orders rose 1.7% (0.2% y/y), but orders for computers & related products fell 2.4% (-2.6% y/y). Orders for machinery gained 0.7% (0.4% y/y). Electrical equipment orders slipped 0.4% (+3.8% y/y) after three straight months of strong increase.
Shipments of durable goods increased 0.4% (2.4% y/y) following two months of decline. Transportation sector shipments were off 0.3% (+3.4% y/y) and shipments excluding transportation gained 0.4% (1.9% y/y). Unfilled orders for durable goods eased 0.5% (+0.9% y/y) while excluding transportation, order backlogs fell 0.2% (+1.9% y/y). Inventories of durable goods increased 0.5% (5.0% y/y), the largest increase since January, prompted by a 1.6% gain (6.9% y/y) in transportation sector inventories. Inventories excluding transportation were little changed (4.1% y/y) for a second straight month.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 1.3 | -2.8 | 1.7 | -2.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -4.6 | -7.6 | 6.0 | -8.4 | 9.8 | 3.2 | -0.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.3 | -6.9 | 2.6 | -9.7 | 5.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.4 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | 0.4 | -1.6 | -0.5 | 2.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | -3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
