Global| Jul 27 2015U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase As Aircraft Bookings Soar
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods surged 3.4% during June (-2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% May decline, earlier reported as -1.8%. The increase compared to expectations for a 3.1% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last month's gain [...]
New orders for durable goods surged 3.4% during June (-2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% May decline, earlier reported as -1.8%. The increase compared to expectations for a 3.1% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last month's gain was powered by a two-thirds jump in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts (1.9% y/y) which recaptured two months of sharp decline. Motor vehicle orders gained 0.2% (10.7% y/y) after a 0.3% shortfall. Orders excluding transportation equipment rose 0.8% (-4.5% y/y), only the second increase in the last nine months. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in durable goods orders and the change in real GDP.
Machinery orders improved 1.4% (-10.7% y/y) following two months of modest improvement. Orders for computers & electronic products edged 0.2% higher (3.7% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.8% increase. Electrical equipment orders increased 2.8% (-7.1% y/y) following deepened declines of 3.7% and 2.8% during the prior two months.
Nondefense capital goods orders jumped 9.4% (-4.5% y/y) with the rise in aircraft bookings. Orders excluding the aircraft sector gained 0.9% (-6.6% y/y), making up most of the declines during the prior two months.
Shipments of durable goods improved 0.1% (1.7% y/y) following two months of 0.3% decline. Shipments excluding transportation edged minimally lower (-1.1% y/y), also following two months of 0.3% decline. Unfilled orders improved 0.1% (4.7% y/y) in the wake of two months of decline. Backlogs less the transportation sector remained unchanged (0.7% y/y) after declines during five of the prior six months. Inventories of durable goods increased 0.4% (3.8% y/y) following a 0.2% decline and excluding transportation orders recovered 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after a like decline.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 3.4 | -2.1 | -1.7 | -2.8 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 6.3 |
| Transportation | 8.9 | -6.1 | -4.0 | 0.9 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 16.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -4.5 | 7.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 9.4 | -6.8 | -2.2 | -4.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 10.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.9 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -6.6 | 6.3 | -1.0 | 7.6 |
| Shipments | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 6.3 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 4.7 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 7.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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