Global| Dec 21 2018U.S. Durable Goods Orders Improvement Paced by Aircraft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods rebounded last month. Overall durable goods orders increased 0.8% (5.3% y/y) during November following a 4.3% October decline. A 1.5% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
New orders for durable goods rebounded last month. Overall durable goods orders increased 0.8% (5.3% y/y) during November following a 4.3% October decline. A 1.5% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for defense aircraft & parts led the gain with a nearly one-third increase, and they rose by three-quarters y/y. Orders for civilian aircraft also were firm and posted a 6.7% rise. Orders for motor vehicles parts eased 0.2% (+8.7% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Excluding the transportation sector entirely, durable goods bookings slipped 0.3% (+4.9% y/y) after a 0.4% increase.
In the capital goods sector, the gain in civilian aircraft lifted nondefense orders by 0.7%. Elsewhere, orders weakened. Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft fell 0.6% (+6.5% y/y), the third decline in the last four months.
Increased orders for metals accounted for the remainder of last month's rise in orders overall. Primary metals orders rose 1.0% (9.1% y/y) and fabricated metals increased 0.5% (5.1% y/y). Working the other way, machinery bookings declined 1.7% (+7.2 y/y) after three consecutive 0.2% gains. Orders for electrical equipment & appliances fell 0.7% (+5.7% y/y) after a 1.1% rise. Computer & electronic product orders held steady (6.4% y/y) after a 2.9% jump. Within that grouping, communication product orders rose 0.8% (5.8% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.7% during November (6.2% y/y) following a 0.4% easing. Excluding the transportation sector, however, shipments held steady (4.6% y/y) after a 3.3% rise. Unfilled orders for durable goods eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) and excluding transportation, order backlogs rose 0.2% (4.9% y/y). Inventories of durable goods rose 0.3% (4.7% y/y) after a 0.2% improvement. Excluding transportation, inventories increased 0.3% (5.4% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.8 | -4.3 | -0.0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | -1.7 | -5.0 |
| Transportation | 2.9 | -12.3 | 0.9 | 6.1 | 3.4 | -0.7 | -6.3 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.3 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 4.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 | -4.2 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 0.7 | -4.7 | -3.2 | 0.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 | -11.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.6 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -4.5 | -5.5 |
| Shipments | 0.7 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | -2.4 | -0.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -3.0 | 0.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
