Global| Sep 25 2020U.S. Durable Goods Orders Edge Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Core capital goods orders rise strongly. • Shipments also were firm, but inventories continued to run off. Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose a modest 0.4% (-4.6% y/y) during August following an 11.7% jump in July, revised [...]
• Core capital goods orders rise strongly.
• Shipments also were firm, but inventories continued to run off.
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose a modest 0.4% (-4.6% y/y) during August following an 11.7% jump in July, revised from 11.2%. A 1.5% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite strong increases during the last four months, the level of durable goods orders remained 5.4% below February, the month before the recession began.
Business investment is improving. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.8% (2.8% y/y), the fourth consecutive month of strong increase.
Orders for transportation equipment rose 0.5% (-13.1% y/y), a gain held back by a 4.0% decline (+2.1% y/y) in orders for motor vehicles & parts. Also contributing to last month's weak increase in orders was a 1.5% drop (-2.9% y/y) in orders for electrical equipment & appliances. Fabricated metals orders also were off 1.3% (-6.4% y/y). Working 1.5% higher (-1.4% y/y) were machinery orders. Also to the upside, computer & electronic product bookings rose 1.2% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.0% gain and primary metals orders improved 1.2% (-5.9% y/y).
Shipments of core capital goods have been notably strong. Last month they grew 1.5% (1.2% y/y) to the highest level since March 2014. Total shipments eased 0.3% (-1.5% y/y). Shipments of transportation products eased 0.3% (-1.5% y/y) following three months of strong gain. Shipments excluding transportation rose 0.5% (-0.1% y/y). Machinery shipments improved 1.7% (-4.3% y/y), strong for the fourth straight month, but electrical equipment shipments fell 0.7% (-3.4% y/y) after two months of strong increase.
Unfilled orders for durable goods declined 0.6% (-6.1% y/y). Excluding transportation, they improved 0.2% (-0.1% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods eased 0.1%, down for the third straight month. Excluding transportation, inventories fell 0.4% (-3.2% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.4 | 11.7 | 7.7 | -4.6 | -1.5 | 7.1 | 5.0 |
| Transportation | 0.5 | 35.2 | 19.5 | -13.1 | -4.8 | 9.2 | 4.7 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 1.8 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| Shipments | -0.3 | 7.6 | 15.2 | -1.5 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 2.6 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 1.5 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 1.1 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.6 | -0.7 | -1.4 | -6.1 | -1.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Inventories | -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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