Global| Oct 27 2016U.S. Durable Goods Orders Ease in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods slipped 0.1% (+1.6% y/y) during September after a 0.3% August rise, revised from zero change. A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the latest decline, downward [...]
New orders for durable goods slipped 0.1% (+1.6% y/y) during September after a 0.3% August rise, revised from zero change. A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the latest decline, downward momentum in orders has reversed.
Nondefense capital goods orders improved 1.5%, but were little changed y/y. Orders excluding aircraft declined 1.2% (-4.1% y/y), and fully reversed the prior months strength. During the last three months, however, these orders have risen at a 3.3% rate.
Orders for transportation equipment fell 0.8% (+4.9% y/y) following a 0.6% increase. Aircraft & parts bookings declined 9.2% due to a 44.8% drop (-54.7% y/y) in orders for defense aircraft. Nondefense aircraft & parts orders rebounded 12.5% (14.4% y/y) after a 24.2% decline.
New orders outside of the transportation sector improved 0.2% (-0.0% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Electrical equipment orders rebounded 1.5% (-2.7% y/y) following a 2.4% decline. Machinery orders grew 1.2% (-6.0% y/y) following little change. Offsetting these increases was a 1.0% decline (+1.9% y/y) in computer & electronic product orders which followed a 0.2% dip. Computer & related product orders declined 8.6% (-17.7% y/y); their value has been falling steadily since the economic recovery began. Primary metals orders eased 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) after two months of strong increase while fabricated metals orders fell 0.4% (+2.6% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods increased 0.8% (-1.1% y/y) after little change during the prior two months. Outside of the transportation sector shipments improved 0.1% (-1.1% y/y) after two months of 0.3% gain. Unfilled orders fell 0.4% (-1.6% y/y), the fourth consecutive month of decline. Outside of the transportation sector, backlogs improved 0.2% (0.7% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Inventories of durable goods increased 0.1% (-1.6% y/y) for a second month, while excluding aircraft they rose 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) for the third month in four.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -0.1 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | -2.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 |
| Transportation | -0.8 | 0.6 | 8.9 | 4.9 | -4.0 | 6.8 | 8.8 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.1 | -0.0 | -2.3 | 3.8 | -0.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 1.5 | -3.9 | 7.7 | -0.1 | -9.6 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | -4.1 | -3.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Shipments | 0.8 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -1.6 | -2.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -1.6 | -0.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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