Global| Apr 25 2012U.S. Durable Goods Orders Dragged Lower By Aircraft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods fell 4.2% last month following a little-revised 1.9% February increase. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.6% decline. Lower orders for transportation equipment led last month's decline with a 12.5% [...]
New orders for durable goods fell 4.2% last month following a little-revised 1.9% February increase. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.6% decline. Lower orders for transportation equipment led last month's decline with a 12.5% (-4.0% y/y) fall. That drop was led by 47.6% fewer (-18.2% y/y) orders for nondefense aircraft & parts. Motor vehicle & parts bookings were essentially unchanged (+3.1% y/y).
Outside of the transportation sector there also was weakness last month. These orders fell 1.1% (+5.0% y/y) following a 1.9% February rise. The orders decline was led by a 2.6% drop (+4.2% y/y) in machinery. Additionally, orders for computers & electronic products fell 1.8% (+0.7% y/y). Offsetting these declines was a 3.2% gain (-0.6% y/y) in bookings for electrical equipment, appliances & components.
Growth in investment spending eased as indicated by a 10.5% drop (0.0% y/y) in nondefense capital goods orders led by the decline in aircraft. Excluding aircraft, orders also slipped 0.8% (+3.9% y/y) and they've wobbled sideways for the last six months. Defense capital goods orders jumped 10.3% (-11.8% y/y) for the third straight month of firm gain.
Shipments of durable goods jumped 1.0% (6.0% y/y) last month. Less the transportation sector, shipments also rose a firm 0.8% (6.7% y/y) led by a 6.5% increase (12.5% y/y) in machinery shipments. Durable goods inventories increased another 0.4% (8.0% y/y) while unfilled orders were unchanged (+9.7% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | -4.2 | 1.9 | -3.5 | 2.7 | 10.1 | 15.4 | -27.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -10.5 | 1.0 | -5.0 | 0.0 | 14.5 | 28.0 | -31.0 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.8 | 2.8 | -3.4 | 3.9 | 10.2 | 17.2 | -20.4 |
| Shipments | 1.0 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 6.2 | -20.4 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 9.9 | -9.0 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 3.9 | -15.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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