Global| Apr 26 2021U.S. Durable Goods Orders Disappoint in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Transportation orders decline sharply for a second month. • Orders of core capital goods reverse February decline. • Shipments rebound while order backlogs & inventories rise. Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose 0.5% in [...]
• Transportation orders decline sharply for a second month.
• Orders of core capital goods reverse February decline.
• Shipments rebound while order backlogs & inventories rise.
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose 0.5% in March (25.0% y/y) after falling 0.9% during February due to winter storms, revised from -1.1%. A 2.4% jump had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Last month's disappointment owed largely to a 1.7% decline (+62.5% y/y) in transportation orders as it followed a 2.0% February weakening. A 5.5% increase (26.6% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts bookings was offset by a 38.2% falloff in aircraft & parts orders.
Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft improved 0.9% last month (11.6% y/y) as it followed a 0.8% February weakening.
In the major categories of the report, primary metals orders rose 1.2% (15.1% y/y) while fabricated metals orders strengthened 3.6% (16.6% y/y). Machinery orders rose 1.0% (9.7% y/y) while computer & electronic product orders edged 0.5% higher (10.1% y/y) following two months of decline. These increases were offset by a 1.5% falloff (+7.4% y/y) in orders for electrical equipment and appliances.
Shipments of durable goods increased 2.5% (10.0% y/y) following a 3.6% decline. Shipments of core capital goods rose 1.3% (10.4% y/y). Shipments of transportation products rebounded 4.8% (11.7% y/y) as auto and aircraft shipments improved. Shipments excluding transportation rebounded 1.5% (9.3% y/y) after and reversed February's weakening.
Unfilled orders for durable goods improved 0.4% (-3.3% y/y) last month after a 0.9% increase. Order backlogs, excluding transportation, rose 1.2% (7.7% y/y) for a second consecutive month.
Inventories of durable goods jumped 1.0% (1.7% y/y) in March, the strongest increase since July 2018. Excluding transportation, inventories increased 0.8% (0.3% y/y) and have been rising for seven consecutive months.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.5 | -0.9 | 3.6 | 25.0 | -7.1 | -1.5 | 7.1 |
| Transportation | -1.7 | -2.0 | 7.6 | 62.5 | -20.0 | -4.8 | 9.2 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 1.6 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 12.8 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 5.9 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.9 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 11.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 4.6 |
| Shipments | 2.5 | -3.6 | 1.8 | 10.0 | -5.2 | 0.8 | 6.6 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 1.3 | -1.1 | 2.0 | 10.4 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 5.7 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | -3.3 | -6.4 | -1.8 | 3.9 |
| Inventories | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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