Global| Aug 26 2013U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Sharply; Orders Excluding Transportation Slip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods slumped 7.3% last month (-0.3% y/y) following a downwardly revised 3.9% increase during June, earlier reported as a 4.2% advance. The decline compared to consensus expectations for a 3.7% drop. Fewer [...]
New orders for durable goods slumped 7.3% last month (-0.3% y/y) following a downwardly revised 3.9% increase during June, earlier reported as a 4.2% advance. The decline compared to consensus expectations for a 3.7% drop. Fewer orders for transportation equipment led the decline with a 19.4% slump (-11.8% y/y). Aircraft orders dropped 44.3% (-32.0% y/y) held back by a 52.3% shortfall (-39.9% y/y) in nondefense bookings. Motor vehicle parts orders offset some of this decline with a 0.5% gain (5.4% y/y).
Outside of the transportation sector, orders growth has moderated. Orders less transportation slipped 0.6% (+5.9% y/y) following a 0.1% June uptick. Electrical equipment orders declined 4.3% (+4.3% y/y) after an unchanged in June while computers & electronic products fell 3.6% (-0.7% y/y) following a 0.8% June decline. Orders for computers & related products fell 19.9% (-22.7% y/y). Machinery orders were unchanged (+13.0% y/y) as were orders for primary metals (4.1% y/y). The 15.4% decline (-3.4% y/y) in nondefense capital goods orders reflected the drop in aircraft. A 3.3% shortfall (8.4% y/y) in orders elsewhere was the first drop in five months.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.3% (+2.1% y/y), the third shortfall in the last four months. Transportation shipments slipped 0.1% (+5.6% y/y). Shipments excluding transportation were off 0.4% (+0.7% y/y) led by a 3.2% drop (-9.2% y/y) in computers & electronic products. Shipments of nondefense capital goods fell 1.4% (+1.2% y/y), the third decline in the last four months, while excluding aircraft orders were off 1.5% (+0.8% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods rose 0.4% (2.5% y/y), the first meaningful increase since February. Excluding transportation inventories rose 0.2% but were unchanged y/y. Unfilled orders for durable goods gained 0.4% (4.3% y/y). Excluding transportation backlogs gained 0.9% (2.3% y/y) and have firmed following a decline during all of last year.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -7.3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 4.1 | 11.0 | 23.2 |
| Transportation | -19.4 | 11.7 | 15.1 | -11.8 | 8.9 | 14.9 | 49.5 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 9.5 | 15.2 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -15.4 | 7.1 | 12.8 | -3.4 | 3.7 | 15.3 | 27.5 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -3.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 11.6 | 12.9 |
| Shipments | -0.3 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 10.8 | 9.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 10.0 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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