Global| Jun 24 2016U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Paced by Military Aircraft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods declined 2.2% during May (+3.2% y/y) following a 3.3% April increase, revised from 3.4%. A 0.8% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Weakness in the transportation sector led [...]
New orders for durable goods declined 2.2% during May (+3.2% y/y) following a 3.3% April increase, revised from 3.4%. A 0.8% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Weakness in the transportation sector led total orders lower with a 5.6% drop (+10.5% y/y) following an 8.5% rise. Defense aircraft orders plunged 34.1% (-9.6% y/y) following a 9.0% decline. Adding to this decline, motor vehicle & parts orders fell 2.8% (+0.7% y/y) after a 1.8% rise. Orders for civilian aircraft & parts rose 1.0% (73.2% y/y) and built on a 69.4% surge.
Outside of the transportation sector altogether, orders for durable goods eased 0.3% (-0.4% y/y) following a 0.5% gain. Primary metal orders declined 1.4% (-8.3% y/y) and fabricated metal orders eased 0.3% (+3.0% y/y). Machinery bookings fell 0.2% (-5.6% y/y) and electrical equipment orders were off 0.1% (-5.5% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products also eased 0.1% (+3.1% y/y) as computer & related products orders fell 2.5% (-12.1% y/y). To the upside, orders for communications equipment increased 4.7% (1.5% y/y).
Orders for nondefense capital goods eased 0.8% (+4.9% y/y) following an 8.7% rise. Excluding aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders fell 0.7% (-3.6% y/y, the third monthly decline this year.
Shipments of durable goods eased 0.2% (-1.1% y/y) and excluding aircraft they were off 0.1% (-1.5% y/y). Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) and excluding transportation they were unchanged, both m/m and y/y. Inventories of durable goods declined 0.3% (-2.5% y/y), while outside of the transportation sector inventories eased 0.2% (-3.7% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Macroeconomic Sources of Recent Interest Rate Fluctuations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -2.2 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | -2.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 |
| Transportation | -5.6 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 10.5 | -4.0 | 6.8 | 8.8 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.4 | -2.3 | 3.8 | -0.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -0.8 | 8.7 | 0.3 | 4.9 | -9.6 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.7 | -0.4 | 0.3 | -3.6 | -3.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Shipments | -0.2 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1.1 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Inventories | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -2.5 | -0.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.9 | -2.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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