Global| Mar 24 2016U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline; Capital Goods Backpedal
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods declined 2.8% (-4.6% y/y) during February following a 4.2% January rise, revised from 4.9%. A 2.4% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 6.2% drop (+7.1% y/y) in orders for [...]
New orders for durable goods declined 2.8% (-4.6% y/y) during February following a 4.2% January rise, revised from 4.9%. A 2.4% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 6.2% drop (+7.1% y/y) in orders for transportation equipment led the overall decline. It was paced by a 27.7% shortfall (-3.6% y/y) in aircraft orders which followed a 59.4% jump. Motor vehicle & parts bookings gained 1.2% (11.8% y/y) after a 2.7% rise.
Orders for nondefense capital goods declined 7.5% (-3.7% y/y) following a 20.5% rise. Bookings excluding aircraft fell 1.8% (-0.1% y/y) after a 3.1% rise.
Machinery orders fell 2.6% (-0.9% y/y) following a 4.6% jump. Computers & electronic product orders were off 0.9% (+6.9% y/y), reversing a 0.9% increase. Electrical equipment orders fell 2.8% (-7.3% y/y), down for a second consecutive month. Fabricated metals orders declined 1.2% (+1.4% y/y), but primary metals orders eased just 0.1% (-11.9% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods declined 0.9% (+0.5% y/y) following a 1.5% rise. Shipments excluding transportation fell 0.7% (-2.0% y/y). Order backlogs of durable goods fell 0.4% (-1.6% y/y) and less transportation they eased 0.4% (-1.6% y/y). Durable goods inventories fell 0.3% (-1.6% y/y), and excluding transportation they also were off 0.3% (-2.9% y/y.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -2.8 | 4.2 | -4.6 | 1.8 | -3.3 | 6.8 | 2.2 |
| Transportation | -6.2 | 10.7 | -12.2 | 7.1 | -4.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -1.0 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -2.5 | 7.2 | 0.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -7.5 | 20.5 | -14.0 | -3.7 | -10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -1.8 | 3.1 | -3.5 | -0.1 | -3.7 | 6.3 | -1.0 |
| Shipments | -0.9 | 1.5 | -1.8 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| Inventories | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -1.6 | -0.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -1.6 | -1.9 | 11.4 | 6.4 |
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Increase
by Tom Moeller March 24, 2016
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 265,000 during the week ended March 19 from 259,000 in the prior week. Expectations were for 267,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four week moving average of claims was little changed at 259,750
In the week ending March 12 , continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2.179 million (-8.3% y/y) from 2.218 million. The four-week moving average fell to 2.207 million.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.6%, the low point of the economic recovery.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were Florida (0.61%), North Carolina (0.72%), Georgia (0.85%), Virginia (0.96%), Arizona (1.03%) and Tennessee (1.00%). At the high end of the scale were Illinois (2.75%), Massachusetts (2.78%), Connecticut (2.95%), Pennsylvania (2.99%), New Jersey (3.19%) and Alaska (4.38s%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted and cover the week ended January 16.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/19/16 | 03/12/16 | 03/05/16 | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 265 | 259 | 253 | -7.0% | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,179 | 2,218 | -8.3 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.6 |
1.8 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
