Global| Jan 28 2016U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Broadly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods tumbled 5.1% (-0.6% y/y) during December following a -0.5% decline in November, revised from little change in the advance report. A 0.2% decline had been expected in the Action Economics' Forecast Survey. [...]
New orders for durable goods tumbled 5.1% (-0.6% y/y) during December following a -0.5% decline in November, revised from little change in the advance report. A 0.2% decline had been expected in the Action Economics' Forecast Survey. A 3.3% decline in orders during all of last year similarly emphasizes the factory sector's difficulties.
A 12.4% decline (+5.5% y/y) in transportation sector orders led the weakness in the report. Orders from the Defense Department for aircraft stumbled by roughly two-thirds (-38.4% y/y). Nondefense aircraft orders declined 28.4% (+67.9% y/y) and motor vehicle & parts orders eased 0.4% (+4.5% y/y).
Outside of the transportation, orders were similarly weak last month. A 1.2% decline (-3.2% y/y) reflected a 5.6% drop in machinery orders (-6.2% y/y), the fourth decline in five months. Computer & electronic product bookings fell 2.0% (+7.5% y/y). Fabricated metals orders eased 0.5% (-5.3% y/y). To the upside, primary metals orders gained 0.3% (-15.7% y/y) following sharp declines in five of the prior six months. Electrical machinery orders increased 2.1%, but they still were down 7.7% y/y. Nondefense capital goods orders gained 0.5% (-0.1% y/y), though excluding aircraft, orders dropped 4.3% (-7.5% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods declined 2.2% (-2.5% y/y), although excluding transportation they were little changed (-2.7% y/y). Unfilled orders declined 0.5% (-1.9% y/y) and excluding transportation, they also fell 0.5% (-2.2% y/y). Inventories backed up 0.5% (-0.1% y/y), but that followed five straight months of decline.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -5.1 | -0.5 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -3.3 | 6.8 | 2.2 |
| Transportation | -12.4 | -0.5 | 7.6 | 5.5 | -4.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -1.2 | -0.5 | 0.5 | -3.2 | -2.5 | 7.2 | 0.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -15.0 | -8.1 | 12.0 | -12.3 | -10.3 | 6.6 | 2.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -4.3 | -1.1 | 0.6 | -7.5 | -3.8 | 6.3 | -1.0 |
| Shipments | -2.2 | 0.6 | -1.2 | -2.6 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.9 | -1.9 | 11.4 | 6.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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