Global| Nov 22 2017U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline as Aircraft Orders Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Activity in the factory sector weakened last month. New orders for durable goods declined 1.2% during October (+1.0% y/y) following an unrevised 2.2% September increase. A 0.5% increase in orders had been expected in the Action [...]
Activity in the factory sector weakened last month. New orders for durable goods declined 1.2% during October (+1.0% y/y) following an unrevised 2.2% September increase. A 0.5% increase in orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The decline in orders reflected a 4.3% fall (-10.1% y/y) in transportation sector bookings which reversed a 4.4% increase. Nondefense aircraft & parts orders weakened 18.6% (-48.9% y/y), but motor vehicle & parts orders gained 1.7% (4.8% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector durable goods orders improved 0.4% (7.4% y/y), up at a 9.8% annual rate during the last three months.
Nondefense capital goods orders weakened 4.5% (-7.5% y/y) due to the decline in civilian aircraft orders. Orders excluding aircraft slipped 0.5% (+8.1% y/y) following three consecutive months of strong increase.
Electrical equipment bookings rose 0.8% (0.8% y/y) following three straight months of even stronger gain. Machinery orders improved 0.6% (9.3% y/y), about as they did in September. Orders for computers & electronic products increased 0.4% (8.3% y/y), also following three months of strong increase. Primary metals orders jumped 1.3% (11.6% y/y) after a 0.5% slip, but orders for fabricated metals fell 0.9% (+8.7% y/y) following a 1.8% jump.
Shipments of durable goods ticked 0.1% higher (5.1% y/y) last month after a 1.0% rise. Shipments outside of the transportation sector rose 0.4% (6.7% y/y) after two months of strong increase. Unfilled orders for durable goods were little-changed (0.5% y/y) for the second month in the last three. Backlogs outside of the transportation sector rose 0.4% (4.6% y/y) for the third consecutive month. Durable goods inventories inched up 0.1% (3.6% y/y) following four months of strong gain. Outside of transportation, inventories rose 0.2% (5.3% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | -1.7 | -4.6 | 4.7 |
| Transportation | -4.3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | -10.1 | -3.4 | -6.2 | 8.2 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 7.4 | -0.7 | -3.6 | 2.9 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -4.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | -7.5 | -7.1 | -11.0 | 0.9 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 8.1 | -4.6 | -4.3 | 0.3 |
| Shipments | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 5.1 | -1.6 | -0.6 | 3.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.0 | 0.2 | -0.0 | 0.5 | -1.7 | -2.0 | 8.3 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.6 | -0.7 | 1.6 | 4.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
