Global| Jun 23 2015U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Again; Aircraft Bookings Slide
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods declined 1.8% during May (-5.0% y/y) following a 1.5% April fall, earlier reported as -0.5%. Expectations were for a 0.5% dip in orders for total durable goods in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
New orders for durable goods declined 1.8% during May (-5.0% y/y) following a 1.5% April fall, earlier reported as -0.5%. Expectations were for a 0.5% dip in orders for total durable goods in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for transportation equipment fell 6.4% (-9.6% y/y) as nondefense aircraft bookings were off by roughly one third (-59.9% y/y). Orders excluding transportation equipment rose 0.5% (-2.9% y/y). During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in orders and the change in real GDP.
Machinery orders nudged 0.8% higher (-2.4% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 8.3% (6.3% y/y) and added to a 4.3% increase. Electrical equipment orders slipped 0.4% (-1.8% y/y) following a 2.3% decline.
Nondefense capital goods orders fell 6.6% (-11.0% y/y) following a 2.0% decline. Orders excluding the notably volatile aircraft sector gained 0.4% (-2.0% y/y) after a 0.3% dip.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. Shipments excluding transportation edged 0.3% higher (-1.3% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Unfilled orders eased 0.5% (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Backlogs less the transportation sector dipped 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) following a 0.4% dip. Inventories of durable goods eased 0.2% (+3.7% y/y) following a 0.2% rise and excluding transportation they also were 0.2% lower (+2.6% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -1.8 | -1.5 | 5.1 | -5.0 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 6.7 |
| Transportation | -6.4 | -4.0 | 15.1 | -9.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 17.0 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -2.9 | 7.3 | -0.2 | 2.4 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.6 | -2.0 | 7.4 | -11.0 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 11.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.4 | -0.3 | 1.6 | -2.0 | 6.5 | -1.3 | 8.1 |
| Shipments | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 6.6 |
| Inventories | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 5.7 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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