Global| Jul 26 2012U.S. Durable Goods Orders Buoyed by Aircraft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods jumped another 1.6% last month following a similar May increase (initially reported as 1.1%). The Consensus forecast was for a 0.5% June rise. Resurgent orders for aircraft & parts accounted for much of [...]
New orders for durable goods jumped another 1.6% last month following a similar May increase (initially reported as 1.1%). The Consensus forecast was for a 0.5% June rise. Resurgent orders for aircraft & parts accounted for much of last month's gain with a 17.2% jump (21.8% y/y). Less the transportation sector altogether, durable goods orders fell 1.1% last month. The y/y gain slowed to 3.1% from its 8.6% rise last year and 2010's increase of 18.0%.
In most industry categories orders were weak. Computers & electronic products orders dropped 4.9% (-2.3% y/y). Machinery orders fell 1.1% (-2.9% y/y) and electrical equipment orders were off 0.7% (+1.4% y/y). Primary metals bookings rose 0.9% (16.8% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods rose merely 0.1% (8.6% y/y) and less transportation they increased 0.5% (6.2% y/y). Unfilled orders for durable goods moved 0.4% higher (8.2% y/y) while inventories rose 0.3% (5.6% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 1.6 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 27.1 | -30.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 1.2 | 2.7 | -0.9 | 3.2 | 13.2 | 36.3 | -36.9 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -1.4 | 2.7 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 10.3 | 17.1 | -24.5 |
| Shipments | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 11.4 | -21.0 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | -10.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | -19.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
