Global| Oct 25 2012U.S. Durable Goods Orders Bounce Back M/M But Trend Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Durable goods orders recovered 9.9% (2.5% y/y) last month following the 13.1% falloff during August. The improvement was better than the 7.0% Consensus forecast. A 31.7% rise in orders for transportation equipment led the rebound as [...]
Durable goods orders recovered 9.9% (2.5% y/y) last month following the 13.1% falloff during August. The improvement was better than the 7.0% Consensus forecast. A 31.7% rise in orders for transportation equipment led the rebound as orders for nondefense aircraft nearly tripled (30.0% y/y). Orders for defense aircraft also rose to their highest level (52.8% y/y) in six months. Motor vehicle orders slipped 0.4% (+13.8% y/y). Less the transportation sector altogether, orders for durables rose 2.0% (-1.6% y/y) after a 2.1% August drop.
Performance in other industries was mixed. Machinery orders jumped 9.2% but were down 6.0% during the last year. Primary metals increased 4.1% (4.3% y/y). To the downside, orders for computers and electronic products slumped 2.5% (-10.4% y/y) and electrical equipment orders were off 2.7% (-6.6% y/y). Nondefense capital goods orders were up by nearly one quarter (-2.3% y/y) and reversed the August decline due to cancelled aircraft bookings. Excluding aircraft, orders were unchanged (-7.4% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods also improved last month, up 0.8% (6.0% y/y). Again, the transportation sector led with a 1.3% (13.7% y/y) rise. Excluding transportation, shipments rose 0.6% (3.2% y/y). Unfilled orders ticked up 0.2% (4.7% y/y) while inventories rose 0.3% (5.6% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 9.9 | -13.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 9.8 | 27.1 | -30.0 |
| Transportation | 31.7 | -33.7 | 13.2 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 57.4 | -42.0 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 2.0 | -2.1 | -1.4 | -1.6 | 8.6 | 18.0 | -25.4 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 23.7 | -24.0 | 4.4 | -2.3 | 13.2 | 36.3 | -36.9 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.0 | 0.2 | -5.6 | -7.4 | 10.3 | 17.1 | -24.5 |
| Shipments | 0.8 | -2.9 | 1.8 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 11.4 | -21.0 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | -10.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | -1.7 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 10.3 | 9.6 | -19.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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