Global| May 26 2015U.S. Durable Goods Orders Back Off
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods dipped 0.5% during April following a revised 5.1% March jump, earlier reported as 4.0%. A 2.5% decline (-5.1% y/y) in transportation sector orders led the total lower as it reflected a 6.1% drop in [...]
New orders for durable goods dipped 0.5% during April following a revised 5.1% March jump, earlier reported as 4.0%. A 2.5% decline (-5.1% y/y) in transportation sector orders led the total lower as it reflected a 6.1% drop in aircraft & parts bookings. Defense aircraft orders fell 12.8% (-4.5% y/y) after more than doubling in March. Nondefense aircraft orders declined 4.0% (+3.3% y/y) following a 40.7% surge. Motor vehicle & parts orders were off 0.3% (+10.9% y/y). Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector improved 0.5% (-0.9% y/y), roughly as they did the prior month. Expectations were for a 0.6% dip in orders for total durable goods in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in orders and the change in real GDP.
Machinery orders jumped 3.1% (-5.5% y/y) following two months of decline. Orders for both fabricated & primary metals also recovered strongly following several months of shortfall. These gains were offset, however, by a 1.5% decline (-3.0% y/y) in orders for electrical equipment & appliances. Orders for computers & electronic products also fell 3.6% (+3.5% y/y) after a 7.7% jump.
Nondefense capital goods orders improved 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) following an upwardly revised 7.2% jump. Orders excluding the notably volatile aircraft sector gained 1.0% (-1.4% y/y) after a 1.5% rise.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.1% (+3.4% y/y) following a 1.5% gain. Shipments excluding transportation edged 0.1% higher (0.6% y/y) after a 0.2% improvement. Unfilled orders were unchanged (+7.1% y/y) for a second consecutive month. Backlogs less the transportation sector dipped 0.2% (+3.4% y/y), down for the third straight month. Inventories of durable goods gained 0.2% (5.0% y/y) following no change, and excluding transportation they rose 0.1% (3.8% y/y) for a second straight month.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -0.5 | 5.1 | -3.5 | -2.3 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 6.3 |
| Transportation | -2.5 | 15.2 | -7.3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 16.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | 0.6 | -1.7 | -0.9 | 7.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 0.3 | 7.2 | -6.0 | -0.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 10.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.0 | 1.5 | -5.1 | -1.4 | 6.3 | -1.0 | 7.6 |
| Shipments | -0.1 | 1.5 | -1.1 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 6.3 |
| Inventories | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.0 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 7.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
