Global| Sep 28 2016U.S. Durable Goods Orders Are Little Changed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods were fairly stable during August (-1.3% y/y) following a 3.6% July increase, revised from 4.4%. A 1.4% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for transportation equipment [...]
New orders for durable goods were fairly stable during August (-1.3% y/y) following a 3.6% July increase, revised from 4.4%. A 1.4% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Orders for transportation equipment improved 0.6% (-1.6% y/y) following an 8.9% jump. A 0.7% rise (0.4% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts bookings offset a 9.1% decline in orders for aircraft & parts. Nondefense aircraft & parts orders plunged 21.9% (-39.5% y/y) following a 73.7% jump. Defense aircraft bookings gained 24.2% (15.0% y/y) following a 20.7% rise.
Nondefense capital goods orders declined 4.4% (-11.0% y/y) after a 7.8% increase. Orders excluding aircraft & parts rose 0.6% (-3.1% y/y), about the same as during each of the prior three months.
Primary metals orders increased, with a 0.2% rise (-4.4% y/y) following a 1.2% gain. Fabricated metal orders fell 0.5% (+4.5% y/y) after a 1.5% jump.
Orders for electrical equipment declined 2.5% (-4.5% y/y) and reversed the prior month's 3.7% jump. Machinery orders eased 0.5% (-8.0% y/y) following a 1.0% increase. Orders for computers & electronic products were off 0.2% (+2 .5% y/y) following a 2.5% gain. Computer & related product orders fell 5.8% (-12 .0% y/y) while communications equipment orders gained 1.8% (3.3% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods eased 0.4% (-2.2% y/y) after no change in July. Shipments excluding transportation remained unchanged (-1.4% y/y), about as they have for six months. Unfilled orders eased 0.1% (-2.1% y/y), down for the third straight month. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders improved 0.1% (0.2% y/y) following a 0.2% gain. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.1% (-2.2% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Outside of the transportation sector, inventories gained 0.3% (-2.3% y/y) as they did during the prior month.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Supervision and Regulation is the title of today's speech by Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen and it is available here.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -0.0 | 3.6 | -4.3 | -1.3 | -2.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 |
| Transportation | 0.6 | 8.9 | -11.5 | -1.6 | -4.0 | 6.8 | 8.8 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.4 | 1.1 | -0.3 | -1.1 | -2.3 | 3.8 | -0.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -4.4 | 7.8 | -10.9 | -11.0 | -9.6 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | -3.1 | -3.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Shipments | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -2.1 | -2.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -2.2 | -0.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
