Global| Nov 27 2012U.S. Durable Goods Orders Are Flat
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Durable goods orders were unchanged (2.3% y/y) last month after a 9.2% recovery during September. The figure contrasted with Consensus expectations for a 1.0% decline. Fewer orders for transportation equipment accounted for much of [...]
Durable goods orders were unchanged (2.3% y/y) last month after a 9.2%
recovery during September. The figure contrasted with Consensus
expectations for a 1.0% decline. Fewer orders for transportation
equipment accounted for much of the weakness with a 3.1% (+14.4% y/y)
decline. Orders for nondefense aircraft were off 5.8% (+52.7% y/y) while orders
for defense aircraft fell 4.3% (+31.6% y/y). Also lower were motor vehicle
& parts orders. The 1.6% (+4.9% y/y) drop was the third consecutive
month of sharp decline. Less the transportation sector altogether, orders
for durables rose 1.5% (-2.3% y/y) following a 1.7% September
increase; however, there were caveats.
The 4.1% jump in electrical equipment and appliance orders just made up for the September drop and left them down 3.2% y/y. Machinery orders increased 2.9% but remained 9.0% lower versus last year. Also to the upside were orders for computers and electronic products. However, the 0.9% (-8.4% y/y) rise followed five consecutive months of decline. Primary metals exhibited a second month of strength with a 1.7% (3.4% y/y) rise. Nondefense capital goods orders increased 0.8% (0.1% y/y) while excluding aircraft orders gained 1.7% (-8.1% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods fell 0.6% (+3.3% y/y) and excluding transportation shipments slipped 0.3% (+2.3% y/y). Unfilled orders gained 0.2% (4.4% y/y) while inventories rose 0.4% (5.4% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 0.0 | 9.2 | -13.1 | 2.3 | 9.8 | 27.1 | -30.0 |
| Transportation | -3.1 | 29.7 | -33.7 | 14.4 | 12.8 | 57.4 | -42.0 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 1.5 | 1.7 | -2.0 | -2.3 | 8.6 | 18.0 | -25.4 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 0.8 | 23.0 | -23.9 | 0.1 | 13.2 | 36.3 | -36.9 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.7 | -0.4 | 0.3 | -8.1 | 10.3 | 17.1 | -24.5 |
| Shipments | -0.6 | 0.5 | -2.9 | 3.3 | 9.6 | 11.4 | -21.0 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.5 | -10.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | 0.1 | -1.7 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 9.6 | -19.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
