Global| Sep 28 2011U.S. Durable Goods Orders Are Flat
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods slipped an expected 0.1% last month following a little-revised 4.1% jump during July. Last month's figure reflected strong crosscurrents amongst the components, certainly in the transportation sector where [...]
New orders for durable goods slipped an expected 0.1% last month following a little-revised 4.1% jump during July. Last month's figure reflected strong crosscurrents amongst the components, certainly in the transportation sector where orders slipped 0.3% (+27.1% y/y). To the upside, orders for aircraft & parts surged 23.2% and more-than doubled y/y. The gain was powered by commercial aircraft & parts which jumped 23.5% and nearly tripled y/y. Offsetting this surge was an 8.5% decline (+7.7% y/y) in motor vehicles and parts.
Outside the transportation sector, orders were mixed. Electrical machinery orders rose 1.3% (2.6% y/y) following a 2.5% July decline. Computers & other electronics orders also rose 1.3% (-6.8% y/y) and made up some of a 3.5% July drop. Computer orders alone jumped 5.5% (-0.2% y/y). Orders for machinery ticked up 0.1% (15.4% y/y) after a 1.9% July jump. Offsetting these gains was a 0.8% slip (+28.3% y/y) in primary metals orders and a 0.5% dip (+6.0% y/y) in fabricated metals.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.2% (+8.0% y/y) last month. Less the transportation sector, however, shipments rose a stronger 1.2% (9.2% y/y) powered by a 5.1% jump (16.3% y/y) in machinery. Factory inventories of durable goods again showed firm accumulation with a 0.9% (13.0% y/y) gain. Unfilled orders also again were strong, posting a second consecutive 0.9% (8.1% y/y) rise.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification (%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | -0.1 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 12.3 | 15.4 | -27.3 | -6.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 5.2 | 4.3 | -2.4 | 21.2 | 28.0 | -31.0 | -8.4 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.1 | -1.2 | 0.8 | 8.6 | 17.2 | -20.4 | -1.2 |
| Shipments | -0.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | -20.4 | -2.8 |
| Inventories | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 13.0 | 9.9 | -9.0 | -0.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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