Global| Jul 25 2013U.S. Durable Goods Orders Again Reflect Strong Aircraft Bookings
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods jumped 4.2% last month (10.9% y/y) following an upwardly revised 5.2% increase during May, earlier reported as 3.6%. The gain easily outpaced consensus expectations for a 1.0% rise. The transportation [...]
New orders for durable goods jumped 4.2% last month (10.9% y/y) following an upwardly revised 5.2% increase during May, earlier reported as 3.6%. The gain easily outpaced consensus expectations for a 1.0% rise. The transportation sector continued to lead with a 12.8% advance (23.8% y/y), the third straight month of strong increase. Orders for aircraft & parts led the way with a 29.2% gain (85.9% y/y) while motor vehicle & parts orders rose 1.3% (10.1% y/y).
Excluding the transportation sector, orders were unchanged (4.9% y/y). Though machinery orders advanced 2.4% (8.0% y/y), bookings of computers & electronics fell 2.6% (+1.4% y/y). Primary metals orders slipped 0.2% (+5.4% y/y) but electrical equipment orders dropped 1.8% (+4.6% y/y). Orders for nondefense capital goods advanced 6.3% (24.9% y/y) with the strength in aircraft. Orders excluding aircraft ticked up 0.7% (7.1% y/y) following three months of strong increase. Defense sector orders jumped by one-third (-18.9% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods were unchanged (3.4% y/y) at the series' record high. Transportation sector shipments slipped 0.3% (+8.9% y/y), but outside of the transportation sector, shipments ticked up just 0.1% (1.3% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments fell 2.0% (+8.3% y/y). Excluding aircraft shipments slipped 0.9% (+0.8% y/y). Defense sector shipments rose 2.0% (-1.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 2.1% in June (5.1% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, backlogs gained 0.9% (0.6% y/y). Inventories of durable goods ticked up 0.2% last month (2.9% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories remained unchanged (0.3% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 11.0 | 23.2 |
| Transportation | 12.8 | 14.8 | 8.0 | 23.8 | 8.9 | 14.9 | 49.5 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 9.5 | 15.2 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 6.3 | 12.9 | 3.5 | 24.9 | 3.7 | 15.3 | 27.5 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 11.6 | 12.9 |
| Shipments | -0.0 | 1.3 | -0.6 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| Inventories | 0.2 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 10.8 | 9.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 10.0 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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