Global| Jun 20 2017U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. current account deficit of $116.8 billion during Q1'17 was larger than a revised $114.0 billion in Q4'16. The Q1 deficit figure compared to $123.6 billion expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest quarterly [...]
The U.S. current account deficit of $116.8 billion during Q1'17 was larger than a revised $114.0 billion in Q4'16. The Q1 deficit figure compared to $123.6 billion expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest quarterly deficit was the largest since Q1'16. As a percent of GDP, the deficit of 2.5% was fairly stable compared to the prior three years. Figures were revised back to 2014.
The deeper deficit last quarter was due to an increased $200.3 billion deficit on goods trade, its largest since Q3'08. Goods exports increased 3.6% (8.5% y/y), but imports of goods rose 3.3% (7.9% y/y). The surplus on services trade was stable at $61.3 billion, though that was smaller than the Q2'14 peak of $65.8 billion. Services exports improved 0.8% (2.8% y/y) while services imports gained 0.9% (4.4% y/y). The surplus on primary income fell to $47.7 billion, down from the Q4'11 peak of $59.6 billion. The deficit on secondary income eased to $25.5 billion, its shallowest since Q2'14.
From the capital account, the surplus on foreign direct investment grew to $111.7 billion, its largest since Q4'14.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Housing and Financial Stability is the title of today's speech by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and it can be found here.
| US Balance of Payments SA | Q1'17 | Q4'16 | Q3'16 | Q1'16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -116.8 | -114.0 | -110.3 | -119.2 | -451.7 | -434.6 | -373.8 |
| Deficit % of GDP | -2.5 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.3 | 2.3 |
| Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -200.3 | -195.1 | -183.4 | -187.6 | -752.5 | -761.9 | -751.5 |
| Exports | 3.6% | -0.1% | 3.0% | -3.0% | -3.6% | -7.5% | 2.6% |
| Imports | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | -2.8% | -4.7% | 4.0% |
| Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 61.3 | 61.0 | 62.5 | 61.5 | 247.7 | 261.4 | 261.2 |
| Exports | 0.8% | -0.2% | 1.3% | -1.0% | -0.1% | 1.5% | 5.8% |
| Imports | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.3% |
| Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 47.7 | 51.3 | 41.1 | 38.1 | 173.2 | 181.0 | 210.8 |
| Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -25.5 | -31.3 | -30.5 | -31.2 | -120.1 | -115.1 | -94.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
