Global| Mar 27 2019U.S. Current Account Deficit Continues to Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. current account deficit widened to $134.4 billion during Q4'18 from $126.6 billion in Q3. It remained the largest quarterly deficit since Q4 2008 and compared to $131.1 billion expected in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
The U.S. current account deficit widened to $134.4 billion during Q4'18 from $126.6 billion in Q3. It remained the largest quarterly deficit since Q4 2008 and compared to $131.1 billion expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. As a percent of GDP, the deficit deepened to 2.6% from 2.5% in Q3, its largest deficit since Q2 2012.
The larger deficit last quarter was due to a record $233.0 billion shortfall on goods trade. Goods exports declined 0.9% (+3.5% y/y), while goods imports held steady (5.7% y/y).
The surplus on services trade eased to $66.1 billion from the record $67.5 billion in Q3. Services exports rose 1.0% after a 0.7% rise. Telecommunications, computer & information services exports gained 0.8% (3.3% y/y) after a 5.0% jump. Exports of intellectual property rights were little changed (-1.5% y/y) after declining in the prior two quarters while travel exports improved 1.1% (1.0% y/y). Services imports gained 2.5% (2.7% y/y) after a 1.9% rise. Charges for intellectual property eased 0.8% (-3.4% y/y) and travel imports strengthened 5.4% (7.6% y/y). Telecommunications, computer & information services imports held steady (-0.7% y/y).
The surplus on primary income was little changed at $60.4 billion, down versus the record high of $62.4 billion reached in Q4'17. The deficit on secondary income widened to $27.8 billion after narrowing since Q2'17.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| US Balance of Payments SA | Q4'18 | Q3'18 | Q2'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -134.4 | -126.6 | -103.6 | -488.5 | -449.1 | -432.9 |
| Deficit % of GDP | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -233.1 | -229.5 | -205.5 | -8913 | -807.5 | -751.1 |
| Exports | -0.9% | -1.8% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | -3.6% |
| Imports | -0.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | -2.9% |
| Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 66.1 | 67.5 | 68.7 | 269.2 | 255.2 | 249.1 |
| Exports | 1.0% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 0.5% |
| Imports | 2.5% | 1.9% | -1.3% | 3.1% | 6.4% | 3.6% |
| Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 60.4 | 60.3 | 62.3 | 244.3 | 221.7 | 193.0 |
| Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -27.8 | -24.9 | -29.0 | -110.7 | -118.6 | -123.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
