Global| Jun 14 2017U.S. CPI Slips; Core Increases Minimally
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price Index eased 0.1% during May (1.9% y/y) following a 0.2% April rise. Expectations had been for no change in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Consumer prices excluding food & energy ticked 0.1% higher for a [...]
The Consumer Price Index eased 0.1% during May (1.9% y/y) following a 0.2% April rise. Expectations had been for no change in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Consumer prices excluding food & energy ticked 0.1% higher for a second consecutive month. A 0.2% increase had been anticipated. The y/y gain in core pricing power declined to 1.7%, the weakest increase since May 2015.
Prices for goods excluding food & energy declined 0.3% (-0.8% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Recreation goods costs eased 0.2% (-3.7% y/y) after a 0.5% decrease, while apparel prices fell 0.8% (-0.9% y/y), down for the third straight month. Prices for household furnishings & supplies fell 0.2% (-1.4% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. New vehicle prices edged 0.2% lower (+0.3% y/y), the fourth consecutive monthly decline. To the upside, appliance prices gained 0.8% (-2.3% y/y) following a 0.5% fall. Medical care goods prices rebounded 0.4% (3.3% y/y) following a 0.8% decline.
Services prices less energy increased 0.2% (2.6% y/y), the strongest change in three months. Transportation services prices rebounded 0.3% (2.9% y/y) following a 0.2% fall. Shelter costs rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y) following a 0.3% gain. Rent costs improved 0.2% (3.4% y/y) and the owners' equivalent rent of shelter prices rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y), the same as in three of the prior four months. Recreation services prices improved 0.1% (3.1% y/y) following no change, but medical care services prices dipped 0.1% (+2.5% y/y) following one month of stability. Education & communication services prices held steady (-2.3% y/y) following three months of decline.
Prices for energy products fell 2.7% (+5.4% y/y), the third decline in four months. Gasoline prices were off 6.4% (+5.8% y/y), also the third decline in four months. Fuel oil prices declined 2.5% (+10.4% y/y), but natural gas prices jumped 1.9% (12.8% y/y). Electricity costs rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y).
Food & beverage prices increased 0.2% (0.9% y/y) for a second month. Fruit & vegetable prices declined 0.6% (+0.8% y/y) after a 2.2% rise. Prices for eggs fell 1.9% (-14.5% y/y), the third sharp decline in four months. Meat, poultry & fish costs increased 0.4% (-1.3% y/y) after a 0.7% decline. Cereal & bakery product costs rose 0.3% (-0. 2% y/y) and reversed the April fall. Dairy product prices improved 0.3% (0.4% y/y) following two months of decline. Nonalchoholic beverage prices jumped 1.1% (0.9% y/y) after two down months.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (%) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Food | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Energy | -2.7 | 1.1 | -3.2 | 5.4 | -6.6 | -16.7 | -0.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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