Global| Aug 11 2017U.S. CPI Remains Subdued
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price Index ticked 0.1% higher (1.7% y/y) during July following no change in June. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy gained 0.1% (1.7% y/y) for the [...]
The Consumer Price Index ticked 0.1% higher (1.7% y/y) during July following no change in June. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy gained 0.1% (1.7% y/y) for the fourth straight month. A 0.2% rise was anticipated.
A 0.1% decline (-0.6% y/y) in goods prices excluding food and energy held back the overall price gain. It was the sixth consecutive monthly shortfall. A 0.5% decline in both new (-0.6% y/y) and used (-4.1% y/y) vehicle prices led last month's weakness. Home furnishings prices also declined 0.5% (-1.7% y/y) and home appliance prices eased 0.2% (-3.3% y/y). Recreation product prices fell 0.4% (-2.9% y/y). These declines were countered by a 1.0% rise (3.7% y/y) in medical care goods costs. Education & communication product prices increased 0.9% (-1.8% y/y).
Continuing to move higher were services prices by 0.2% for the third straight month. The y/y increase of 2.4% compares to a 3.2% rise as of September. Shelter prices ticked 0.1% higher (3.2% y/y), the weakest increase in four months. Holding back last month's gain was a 4.2% decline (-2.4% y/y) in the cost of lodging away from home. Owners' equivalent rents of primary residences gained 0.3% (3.2% y/y) and rents of primary residences gained 0.2% (3.8% y/y).
Energy prices eased 0.1% (+3.4% y/y), down for the fifth month in the last six. Fuel oil prices fell 1.2% (+4.6% y/y) and gasoline prices held steady (+3.0% y/y). Also moving lower were natural gas costs by 2.3% (+7.5% y/y). Electricity prices rose 0.4% (2.6% y/y).
Food prices improved 0.2% (1.1% y/y), pulled higher by a 1.3% jump (1.1% y/y) in meat prices. Lower egg prices countered this gain with a 2.1% decline (-9.5% y/y). Cereal & bakery product prices also eased 0.2% (-0.5% y/y), but dairy product costs gained 0.3% (0.9% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices strengthened 0.5% (1.0% y/y). Nonalchoholic beverage prices fell 0.2% (+0.3% y/y). The cost of eating out also rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y), the weakest annual gain since 2013.
The Consumer Price Data can be found in Haver's USECON data base with additional detail in the Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available here.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (%) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Food | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Energy | -0.1 | -1.6 | -2.7 | 3.4 | -6.6 | -16.7 | -0.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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