Global| Nov 17 2015U.S. CPI Recovers After Two Months of Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% during October (0.2% y/y) and countered declines during the prior two months. Prices excluding food & energy increased 0.2% (1.9% y/y) for the second straight month. A 0.2% increase in both [...]
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% during October (0.2% y/y) and countered declines during the prior two months. Prices excluding food & energy increased 0.2% (1.9% y/y) for the second straight month. A 0.2% increase in both total and core prices were expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 0.3% increase (2.8% y/y) in services prices repeated the prior month's gain. Medical care prices jumped 0.8% (3.0% y/y). Shelter prices rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) as owners equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.2% (3.1% y/y). Public transportation services prices jumped 1.3% (-2.3% y/y) and recreation services costs improved 0.4% (2.4% y/y).
Energy prices also increased 0.3% (-17.1% y/y) led by a 0.4% rise (-27.8% y/y) in gasoline prices. Electricity costs increased 0.4% (-0.5% y/y) but fuel oil prices fell 1.1% (-32.9% y/y). Natural gas prices eased 0.7% (-11.0% y/y).
Food prices ticked 0.1% higher (1.6% y/y) following stronger gains in the prior four months. Cereal prices jumped 1.3% (1.6% y/y) and fruit & vegetable prices improved 0.5% (0.1% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices gained 0.2% (1.0% y/y) but meat, poultry & fish prices eased 0.1% (-1.2% y/y). Egg prices declined 4.8% (+30.0% y/y).
Goods prices excluding food & energy eased 0.1% (-0.7% y/y) as apparel prices declined 0.8% (-1.9% y/y). Appliance prices fell 0.5% (-4.0% y/y) and new vehicle prices were off 0.2% (+0.1% y/y). Recreation goods prices eased 0.1% (-2.6% y/y). Furniture prices remained little changed (-0.5% y/y) but medical care commodity prices gained 0.2% (2.8% y/y). Education books and supplies prices jumped 0.4% (4.3% y/y) and as did tobacco product prices (3.4% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 1.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Food | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Energy | 0.3 | -4.7 | -2.0 | -17.1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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