Global| May 10 2018U.S. CPI Rebounds; Core Price Increase Moderates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer prices increased 0.2% (2.5% y/y) during April following a 0.1% March slip. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy improved 0.1% (2.1% y/y) after two months [...]
Consumer prices increased 0.2% (2.5% y/y) during April following a 0.1% March slip. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy improved 0.1% (2.1% y/y) after two months of 0.2% rise. A 0.2% gain had been expected.
Goods price inflation was uneven last month. Goods prices excluding food & energy slipped 0.1% (-0.4% y/y) for the second straight month. The decline reflected a 2.2% fall (-2.1% y/y) in prices of education & communication goods prices. Prices for used cars & trucks fell 1.6% (-0.9% y/y) and new vehicle prices dropped 0.5% (-1.6 y/y). Recreation product prices fell 0.3% (-2.8% y/y) led by a 0.8% decline (-12.7% y/y) in video & audio product costs. Medical care product prices were down 0.2% (+1.9% y/y). These declines were offset by a 2.1% rise (0.2% y/y) in household appliance prices and a 1.1% (0.1% y/y) strengthening of furniture & bedding costs. Also rising were apparel prices by 0.3% (0.8% y/y).
Countering the declines, services prices increased 0.2% (2.9% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Shelter prices rose 0.3% (3.4% y/y) reflecting a 0.4% increase (3.7% y/y) in rents of primary residences. The owners' equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.3% (3.4% y/y). Medical care services prices gained 0.2% (2.2% y/y) but public transportation costs fell 1.6% (-3.0% y/y). Recreation services prices declined 0.4% (+1.7% y/y). Education & communication services prices were little changed (0.3% y/y).
Food prices increased 0.3% last month (1.4% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Fruit & vegetable prices jumped 1.0% (-0.4% y/y). Meat prices strengthened 0.5% (2.4% y/y) while egg prices rose by 7.1%, up by roughly one-quarter y/y. Dairy & related product prices increased 0.4% (-0.4% y/y). Falling 0.6% (-0.8 y/y) were nonalcoholic beverage prices. Cereal & bakery product prices eased 0.2% and were little changed y/y.
Providing strength to consumer prices last month were energy prices with a 1.4% jump (7.9% y/y), as they rebounded after a 2.8% decline. Gasoline prices strengthened 3.0% (15.4% y/y) and fuel oil costs rose 2.7% (22.6% y/y). Electricity prices fell 0.6% (1.2% y/y) and natural gas prices declined 0.4% (+1.0% y/y).
The consumer price data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Slower Growth in First Quarter Appears Temporary from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Food | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Energy | 1.4 | -2.8 | 0.1 | 7.9 | 7.9 | -6.6 | -16.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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