Global| Jun 14 2012U.S. CPI Led Lower By Energy Prices; Core Is Stable
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer prices fell 0.3% last month versus an expected 0.2% decline. The figure pulled the y/y increase to 1.7%, down from its peak of 3.9% last September. Prices less food and energy increased a steady and expected 0.2%, for the [...]
Consumer prices fell 0.3% last month versus an expected 0.2% decline. The figure pulled the y/y increase to 1.7%, down from its peak of 3.9% last September. Prices less food and energy increased a steady and expected 0.2%, for the third straight month. The y/y gain held at 2.3%, its highest since September 2008.
Energy prices fell 4.3% (-3.9% y/y) as gasoline prices were off 6.8% (-4.0% y/y). Fuel oil costs fell a not seasonally adjusted 2.8% (-1.1% y/y) while gas & electricity prices fell 0.7% (-3.6% y/y). Food prices were unchanged (2.8% y/y) as meat costs fell 0.3% (+2.8% y/y). Elsewhere, cereals & bakery products costs slipped 0.1% (+3.7% y/y) but fruits & vegetable prices increased 0.4% (-0.4% y/y.
For goods alone, prices less food & energy rose 0.2% for the fourth month in the last five. However, the 12-month increase fell to 1.6%. Apparel prices again rose 0.4% and the 4.4% y/y gain compared to a 0.5% decline in 2010. Furniture & bedding costs rose 0.2% (1.4% y/y) while appliance costs fell 0.6% (+3.0% y/y) for the second straight month. New motor vehicle prices increased 0.2% and by a much-lessened 1.3% y/y.
The 0.2% increase in core service prices (2.5% y/y) reflected a stable 0.2% rise (2.3% y/y) in shelter costs (32% of the CPI). Owners equivalent rent of primary residences ticked up 0.1% (2.1% y/y). The y/y increase compares to a low of -0.3% in early 2010. Education costs rose an increased 0.4% (4.2% y/y) as medical care service prices rose a quickened 0.5% (3.9% y/y). Public transportation prices rose a firm 0.8% (2.4% y/y) while recreation services prices gained 0.2% (2.6% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Food | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Energy | -4.3 | -1.7 | 0.9 | -3.9 | 15.2 | 9.6 | -18.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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