Global| Jul 16 2013U.S. CPI Jumps With Energy Prices; Inflation Tame Elsewhere
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
All of a sudden the cost of living has jumped. The consumer price index surged 0.5% in June (1.8% y/y) after a 0.1% May uptick. It was the firmest rise since February and beat expectations for a 0.3% increase. Prices excluding food [...]
All of a sudden the cost of living has jumped. The consumer price index surged 0.5% in June (1.8% y/y) after a 0.1% May uptick. It was the firmest rise since February and beat expectations for a 0.3% increase. Prices excluding food and energy gained 0.2% (1.6% y/y) for the seco+nd straight month and matched expectations.
A 3.4% rise (-0.8% y/y) in energy prices led the CPI higher last month. It reflected a 6.3% gain (2.8% y/y) in gasoline prices, the first rise since February. Electricity costs increased 0.2% (1.9% y/y). To the downside, fuel oil prices slipped 0.5% (+1.8% y/y) and natural gas costs were off 0.4% (+11.7% y/y).
A 0.2% rise (1.4% y/y) in food prices reflected a 1.3% jump (2.6% y/y) in milk costs. Also, poultry prices gained 1.0% (5.5% y/y) and meat prices were up 0.3% (0.8% y/y). Beverage prices rose 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) but fruit and vegetable prices slipped 0.1% (+1.0% y/y).
Prices for goods less food and energy gained 0.2% (-0.2% y/y) following several months of having been unchanged. Apparel prices led the way higher with a 0.9% jump (0.7% y/y) while medical care goods prices rebounded 0.5% (-0.1% y/y). New car and truck prices gained 0.3% (1.2% y/y). Furniture and bedding costs rose 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) and home appliance prices also increased 0.2% (-1.9% y/y). Recreation goods prices were off 0.6% (-1.8% y/y).
Core services prices increased 0.2% (2.3% y/y). Medical care service prices rose 0.4% (2.8% y/y). Shelter costs (32% of the CPI) gained 0.2% (2.3% y/y) while owners equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.2% (2.2% y/y). Public transportation prices fell 0.9% (+3.6% y/y) and transportation services costs slipped 0.1% (+2.5% y/y).
The Path of Wage Growth and Unemployment from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Food | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Energy | 3.4 | 0.4 | -4.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 15.2 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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