Global| May 12 2017U.S. CPI Increases Modestly; Core Up Minimally
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price Index gained 0.2% during April following a 0.3% March decline. The 2.2% y/y increase was down from February's y/y rise of 2.7%. The monthly increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
The Consumer Price Index gained 0.2% during April following a 0.3% March decline. The 2.2% y/y increase was down from February's y/y rise of 2.7%. The monthly increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Consumer prices excluding food & energy ticked 0.1% higher after a 0.1% fall. A 0.2% increase had been anticipated. The y/y gain in core pricing power declined to 1.9%, its weakest annual rate of increase since October 2015.
Prices for goods excluding food & energy declined 0.2% (-0.6% y/y), down for the third straight month. Medical care goods prices fell 0.8% (+2.6% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. Appliance prices declined 0.5% (-2.8% y/y) after a 0.5% increase. Recreation goods costs also fell 0.5% (-3.6% y/y) while apparel prices eased 0.3% (+0.5% y/y) after a 0.7% decline. Prices for household furnishings & supplies fell 0.3% (-1.4% y/y), down for the third straight month. New vehicle prices edged 0.2% lower (+0.4% y/y), also the third consecutive monthly decline.
Services prices less energy ticked 0.1% higher (2.7% y/y) and reversed the March easing. Shelter costs rose 0.3% (3.5% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. Rent costs gained 0.3% (3.5% y/y) and the owners' equivalent rent of shelter prices rose 0.2% (3.4% y/y), the same as during the prior month. Recreation services prices held steady (3.2% y/y) after three months of increase and medical care services prices also were unchanged (3.1% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. Transportation services prices eased 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Education & communication services prices also were off 0.2% (-2.4% y/y) after 1.9% drop.
Prices for energy products gained 1.1% (9.3% y/y) following two months of decline. Gasoline prices increased 1.2% (14.3% y/y) after falling for two months. Fuel oil prices rose 3.8% (16.4% y/y) after two months of decline. Natural gas prices jumped 2.2% (12.0% y/y) and electricity costs rose 0.6% (2.4% y/y).
Food & beverage prices gained 0.2% (0.5% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Fruit & vegetable prices jumped 2.2% (0.7% y/y) after a 1.6% increase. Prices for eggs rose 1.6% (-15.8% y/y) following two months of decline. Meat, poultry & fish costs declined 0.7% (-2.1% y/y) after two months of 0.5% rise. Cereal & bakery product costs fell 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) and reversed the March increase. Dairy product prices eased 0.2% (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.6% rise.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS\1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (%) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.0 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Food | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Energy | 1.1 | -3.2 | -1.0 | 9.3 | -6.6 | -16.7 | -0.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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