Global| Jun 12 2019U.S. CPI Increases Minimally; Core Prices Remain Tame
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inflation continues to stay under wraps. The Consumer Price Index nudged 0.1% higher (1.8% y/y) during May following a 0.3% April rise. It was the smallest increase since January. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics [...]
Inflation continues to stay under wraps. The Consumer Price Index nudged 0.1% higher (1.8% y/y) during May following a 0.3% April rise. It was the smallest increase since January. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy also rose 0.1% (2.0% y/y) for the fourth consecutive month. A 0.2% gain had been expected.
Core goods prices continued to decline. The 0.1% easing (-0.2% y/y) pushed them lower for the fourth straight month. The decline was led by a 1.4% drop (+0.3% y/y) in used car & truck prices. Education & communications goods prices fell 0.5% (-6.0% y/y), off for the fifth straight month. Appliance prices eased 0.8% (+2.4% y/y) and medical care product prices fell 0.4% (-0.7% y/y). Apparel prices held steady (-3.1% y/y). Increasing by 0.1% (0.9% y/y) were new vehicle prices. Recreation product prices also rose 0.1% (-1.0% y/y) following a 0.3% decline, but video & audio product costs dropped 1.0% (-9.3% y/y). Prices of furniture & bedding rose 0.7% (2.4% y/y), recouping a 0.7% April decline.
Service prices improved 0.2% in April (2.7% y/y), following two months of 0.3% gain. Transportation services prices rose 0.1% (1.1% y/y), but the cost of public transportation surged 1.9% (0.9% y/y). Shelter costs rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y). Rents of primary residences increased 0.2% (3.7% y/y) and the owners' equivalent rent of primary residences gained a steady 0.3% (3.4% y/y). The cost of lodging away from home eased 0.1% (1.6% y/y). Recreation services prices declined 0.5% (+2.2% y/y) and the cost of medical care services rose 0.5% (2.8% y/y). Education & communication service costs increased 0.2% (1.3% y/y) as tuition costs gained 0.3% (3.5% y/y).
Lower energy prices held back the overall gain in the CPI with a 0.6% decline (-0.5% y/y). It followed two months of strong increase. Weakness was led by a 1.0% decline (-2.5% y/y) in natural gas prices and the cost of electricity fell 0.8% (-0.2% y/y). Gasoline prices eased 0.5% (-0.2% y/y) after three months of strong increase. Fuel oil costs weakened 0.3% (-0.8% y/y), after firming for three straight months.
Food prices rebounded 0.3% last month (2.0% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Nonalcoholic beverage prices gained 1.2% (+2.2% y/y). Meat, poultry & fish prices surged 1.0% (1.4% y/y), but the increase was countered by a 2.2% decline in egg prices (-15.6% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices fell 0.8% (+1.7% y/y). Dairy prices strengthened 0.7% (1.0% y/y) while cereal & bakery product prices rose 0.4% (2.2% y/y).
The consumer price data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | May | Apr | Mar | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Food | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Energy | -0.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 7.5 | 7.9 | -6.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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