Global| Dec 11 2019U.S. CPI Increase Led by Higher Energy Prices; Core Prices Rise Steadily
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% (2.1% y/y) during November after a 0.4% October rise. A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.2% (2.3% y/y), the [...]
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% (2.1% y/y) during November after a 0.4% October rise. A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.2% (2.3% y/y), the same as in October.
Strength in energy prices again provided the most lift to the CPI last month with a 0.8% rise (-0.6% y/y) following October's 2.7% jump. Gasoline prices strengthened 1.1% (-1.2% y/y) while fuel oil prices rose 1.4% (-6.7% y/y). Natural gas prices surged 1.1% both m/m and y/y. The cost of electricity rose 0.3% (0.5% y/y).
Food prices rose a minimal 0.1% last month (2.0% y/y) after a 0.2% October gain. Meat prices strengthened 0.6% (2.5% y/y) while dairy product prices also rose 0.6% (2.6% y/y. Egg prices gained 0.5% (-7.9% y/y). Cereal & bakery product prices edged 0.1% higher (1.1% y/y) but fruit & vegetable prices fell 0.7% (+0.4% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 0.6% (1.7% y/y).
Services prices rose 0.3%. The y/y increase of 3.0% is elevated from 2.7% early this year. Recreation services prices strengthened 0.6% (2.4% y/y). Medical care service prices rose 0.4% (5.1% y/y) as did education & communications costs (1.9% y/y). The cost of public transportation improved 0.1% (1.9% y/y). Shelter prices improved 0.3% (3.3% y/y) as hotel costs strengthened 1.1% (3.2% y/y). Rents of primary residences rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y). The owners equivalent rent of primary residences improved 0.2% (3.3% y/y).
Goods prices excluding food & energy held steady last month (0.1% y/y) after easing 0.1% during October. Recreation goods prices edged 0.1% higher, but the y/y increase of 0.8% compared to earlier declines of 3% or more. New car & truck prices eased 0.1% (-0.1% y/y) while used vehicle costs strengthened 0.6% (-0.4% y/y). Apparel prices rose 0.1% (-1.6% y/y) though the cost of men's apparel fell 1.9% (-0.9% y/y). This decline was offset by a 1.2% increase (-3.9% y/y) in women's apparel prices. Furniture & bedding prices eased 0.2% (+2.2% y/y) while appliance prices strengthened 1.0% (0.2% y/y).
The consumer price data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Food | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Energy | 0.8 | 2.7 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 | -6.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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