Global| Apr 16 2013U.S. CPI Falls As Energy Prices Move Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer price index fell 0.2% (+1.5% y/y) during March and partially reversed February's 0.7% rise. Expectations were for no change in the index. Prices excluding food and energy ticked up 0.1% (1.9% y/y), weaker than the [...]
The consumer price index fell 0.2% (+1.5% y/y) during March and partially reversed February's 0.7% rise. Expectations were for no change in the index. Prices excluding food and energy ticked up 0.1% (1.9% y/y), weaker than the expected 0.2% rise.
The CPI's decline reflected a 2.6% drop (-1.6% y/y) in energy prices. The drop was led by a 4.4% shortfall (-3.4% y/y) in gasoline prices. Fuel oil prices also were off 2.1% (-2.4% y/y) but prices for natural gas rose 1.0% (1.8% y/y). Food prices were unchanged (1.5% y/y). Cereals & bakery product prices rose 0.2% (0.9% y/y) while prices of meats, poultry, fish and eggs remained unchanged (1.2% y/y). Dairy product costs fell 0.6% (-0.5% y/y).
Prices for goods less food and energy ticked 0.1% higher (1.9% y/y). Furniture & bedding costs rose 0.3% (-0.6% y/y) but that was offset by a 0.3% drop (-1.2% y/y) in home appliance prices. Apparel prices were off 1.0% (+0.8% y/y) and new car & truck costs were unchanged (1.1% y/y). Medical care goods prices rose 0.1% (0.6% y/y) while recreational goods prices were roughly unchanged (-1.9% y/y).
Core services prices again rose a firmer 0.2% (2.5% y/y). A 1.1% rise (4.0% y/y) in public transportation services was accompanied by a 0.3% gain (3.9% y/y) in medical care services prices. Tuition costs & fees also increased 0.3% (3.9% y/y) while shelter costs (32% of the CPI) again rose 0.2% (2.2% y/y). Owners equivalent rent of primary residences ticked up 0.1% (2.1% y/y). Recreational services prices slipped 0.1% (+2.2% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Food | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Energy | -2.6 | 5.4 | -1.7 | -1.6 | 1.0 | 15.2 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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