Global| Sep 12 2019U.S. CPI Edges Higher; Core Prices Accelerate Y/Y
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% during August (1.7% y/y) following a 0.3% July increase. The rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.3% for the third straight [...]
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% during August (1.7% y/y) following a 0.3% July increase. The rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.3% for the third straight month. A 0.2% gain had been expected. The y/y rise accelerated to 2.4%, its strongest gain since 2008.
Core goods prices excluding food & energy improved 0.2% as they did in July. The y/y rise accelerated, however, to 0.8% from the low of -1.0% during October 2017. Used car & truck prices surged 1.1% (2.1 % y/y), strong for the third straight month. Education & communications goods prices strengthened 0.9% (-3.4% y/y) after a 1.1% rise. Medical care goods prices improved 0.3% (0.1% y/y), the strongest rise in four months. Recreation goods prices improved 0.2%. Their -0.9% y/y change compared to -4.0% y/y in October 2016. Apparel prices also gained 0.2% after a 0.4% rise. Their y/y gain accelerated to 1.0% from -3.1% just three months ago. Prices of new vehicles eased 0.1% (+0.2% y/y), off slightly for a second straight month. Household appliance prices slipped 0.3% and the 0.1% y/y rise compared to 6.8% y/y just six months ago. Furniture & bedding prices weakened 1.1%. They strengthened 1.4% y/y after y/y price deflation from 2013 to the middle of last year.
Services prices increased 0.3% (2.9% y/y) for the third consecutive month. The cost of shelter rose a weakened 0.2% (3.4% y/y). The owners' equivalent rent of primary residence rose 0.2% and a steady 3.4% y/y. Rents of primary residences also gained 0.2% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. The cost of lodging away from home weakened 2.1% (+2.0% y/y), the third decline in four months. Medical care services prices strengthened 0.9%. The 4.3% y/y rise was increased from 1.6% two years ago. Recreation services costs surged 0.6% (2.2% y/y) after declining in two of the previous three months. Education & communication costs eased 0.1% and rose a lessened 1.0% y/y. The cost of public transportation increased 1.2% and by an increased 1.5% y/y.
Food prices were unchanged for the third straight month (+1.7% y/y) in August. Dairy product prices rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) but meat, poultry & fish prices fell 0.5% (+0.4% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices declined 0.5% (+0.3% y/y) while cereal & bakery product costs eased 0.3% (+1.2% y/y). Egg prices declined 2.6% (-15.9% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices were stable (1.9% y/y), but have been declining y/y since early 2018.
The cost of energy declined 1.9% (-4.4% y/y) and reversed July's 1.3% rise. Gasoline prices fell 3.5% (-7.1% y/y), the third decline in four months. Fuel oil prices eased 0.9% (-8.4% y/y), also the third decline in four months. Electricity prices fell 0.3% (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.6% rise. To the upside, prices for natural gas improved 0.1% but declined 3.5% y/y.
The consumer price data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.7y
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Food | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Energy | -1.9 | 1.3 | -2.3 | -4.4 | 7.5 | 7.9 | -6.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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