Global| Mar 15 2013U.S. CPI Driven Up By Rebound in Energy Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer price index jumped 0.7% (2.0% y/y) during February following two months of having been unchanged. Expectations were for a 0.5% rise. Prices excluding food and energy matched expectations and rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y). The [...]
The consumer price index jumped 0.7% (2.0% y/y) during February following two months of having been unchanged. Expectations were for a 0.5% rise. Prices excluding food and energy matched expectations and rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y).
The overall increase in prices was driven by a 5.4% surge (2.3% y/y) in energy prices. The strength was led by a 9.1% jump (3.3% y/y) in gasoline prices (which have leveled off this month). Fuel oil prices also posted a strong 3.1% gain (2.3% y/y) while prices for natural gas rose 1.2% (1.3% y/y). Food price inflation offset some of this strength with a 0.1% uptick (1.6% y/y). This reflected a 0.4% gain (1.7% y/y) in prices of meats, poultry, fish and eggs which was offset by a 0.4% decline (+0.1% y/y) in dairy product costs.
Prices for goods less food and energy were unchanged (0.3% y/y) following a 0.2% recovery in January. Home appliance prices fell 0.9% (-1.0% y/y) and apparel prices slipped 0.1% (+2.4% y/y). New car & truck prices also were down 0.3% (+1.1% y/y). These declines were offset by a 0.4% gain (0.0% y/y) in furniture & bedding prices while recreational goods prices ticked up 0.1% (-2.0% y/y).
Core services prices were firmer and posted a 0.2% gain (2.6% y/y). A 0.3% rise (3.9% y/y) in medical care services matched a 0.3% rise (3.9% y/y) in tuition costs & fees. Shelter costs (32% of the CPI) again increased 0.2% (2.3% y/y). Owners equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.2% (2.1% y/y). That's improved from the 0.3% annual rate of decline in mid-2010. Transportation services prices ticked up 0.1% (3.1% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Food | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Energy | 5.4 | -1.7 | -0.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 15.2 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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