Global| Oct 15 2015U.S. CPI Dips; Core Prices Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price Index declined 0.2% during September (-0.0% y/y) and followed a 0.1% August dip. Pricing power elsewhere, however, strengthened. Prices excluding food & energy increased 0.2% (1.9% y/y) following two months of 0.1% [...]
The Consumer Price Index declined 0.2% during September (-0.0% y/y) and followed a 0.1% August dip. Pricing power elsewhere, however, strengthened. Prices excluding food & energy increased 0.2% (1.9% y/y) following two months of 0.1% gain. A 0.2% decline in the total and a 0.1% rise in core prices were expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 4.7% fall (-18.4% y/y) in energy prices was behind last month's decline in the total CPI. The easing was paced by a 9.0% drop in gasoline prices (-29.6% y/y) which followed a 4.1% shortfall in August. Fuel oil prices were off 2.4% (-34.9% y/y). Electricity prices fell 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) and natural gas prices eased 0.3% (-12.1% y/y).
Offsetting this decline was a 0.4% increase (1.6% y/y) in food prices which followed two months of 0.2% gain. Fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.7% both m/m and y/y. Nonalcoholic beverage pries eased 0.1% (+1.2% y/y) and meats, poultry & fish costs fell 0.3% (0.9% y/y). Egg prices were off 0.6% m/m but were up by more than one third y/y.
Services prices less energy rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y) in September, equaling the strongest increases this year. Shelter prices gained 0.3% (3.2% y/y). Rents of primary residences rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) and owners equivalent rents of primary residences increased 0.3% (3.1% y/y). Also rising 0.3% were tuition & school fees (3.8% y/y) and medical care services (2.4% y/y) prices.
Prices for goods less food & energy remained unchanged (-0.5% y/y) after dipping 0.1% for four straight months. Household furnishings & supplies prices rose 0.4% (-1.0% y/y) and recreation goods improved 0.3% (-2.5% y/y). These increases were offset by a 0.3% drop (-1.4% y/y) in apparel prices; new vehicle prices eased 0.1% (+0.5% y/y), down for the third straight month.
Declining prices helped prop up real average hourly earnings by 2.2% y/y.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
Why So Slow? A Gradual Return for Interest Rates from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 1.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Food | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Energy | -4.7 | -2.0 | 0.1 | -18.4 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
