Global| Feb 07 2013U.S. Consumers Continue To Borrow Aggressively
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Lower unemployment has prompted consumers to spend more than they earn. Consumer credit outstanding matched expectations and gained another $14.6B during December. That followed a downwardly revised $15.9B November increase, according [...]
Lower unemployment has prompted consumers to spend more than they earn.
Consumer credit outstanding matched expectations and gained another $14.6B
during December. That followed a downwardly revised $15.9B November increase,
according to the Federal Reserve. The latest rise left the y/y gain stable
at 5.7%, nearly its strongest since early-2008.
Use of non-revolving credit lines continued quite strong and rose $18.2B, the fifth consecutive double-digit monthly rise. The y/y increase of 8.3% was its strongest since late-2002. Federal government loans rose by one quarter y/y, credit union lending grew 10.8% y/y, securitized loans increased 7.6% y/y, and commercial bank loans gained 3.9% y/y. Lending by savings institutions fell 15.7% y/y. Non-revolving credit accounts for roughly two thirds of the credit total. In contrast, consumers seemed less inclined to quickly pull out their credit cards. Revolving credit fell $3.6B after inching up $0.5B in November. The y/y increase was a modest 0.3%. Savings institution loans rose 8.6% y/y while pools of securitized assets gained 5.0% y/y. Credit union loans increased 2.6% y/y, commercial bank lending grew 1.2% but finance company lending fell 14.1% y/y.
The figures used in this report are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics expectation figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $14.6B | $15.9B | $13.9B | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.4% | -1.2% |
| Revolving | -3.6 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -7.4 |
| Non-revolving | 18.2 | 15.4 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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