Global| May 21 2010U.S. Consumer Spending OutlookImproves According To RBC
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The outlook for U.S. consumer spending remains firm. That should be the conclusion after looking at the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) CASH Index. It monitors several aspects of the consumer environment and rose early this month to 72.7 [...]
The outlook for U.S. consumer spending remains firm. That should be the conclusion after looking at the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) CASH Index. It monitors several aspects of the consumer environment and rose early this month to 72.7 from 64.6 in April. It was up by more than two-thirds from last May.
Deterioration this month in the subcategories accompanied the overall index improvement. Nevertheless, each remained solid versus last year and portends continued improvement in consumer spending. Since inception in 2002, the CASH index has an 85% correlation with the y/y change in real personal consumption expenditures. The jobs index has a similar correlation with the change in payroll employment.
The RBC U.S. CASH (Consumer Attitudes & Spending by Households) index is based on data collected from interviews with a sample of 1,008 U.S. adults conducted over a five-day polling period during the first week of each month by Ipsos, a market and opinion research firm.
The RBC Financial Group figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.The latest report from RBC can be found here.
| RBC Consumer Attitudes & Spending by Households Survey (CASH) | May | April | March | May '09 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nat'l RBC Index | 72.7 | 64.6 | 58.2 | 43.0 | 30.0 | 36.1 | 82.6 |
| Current Conditions Index | 63.6 | 66.5 | 56.7 | 45.0 | 28.2 | 46.0 | 99.4 |
| Expectations Index | 74.2 | 78.0 | 57.3 | 34.0 | 19.5 | -12.4 | 34.3 |
| Jobs Index | 74.2 | 74.9 | 68.2 | 54.4 | 50.9 | 88.7 | 122.2 |
| Investment Index | 73.8 | 75.3 | 65.1 | 49.6 | 37.2 | 51.1 | 91.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
