Global| Dec 06 2013U.S. Consumer Sentiment Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumers are feeling better about things. The index of consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey jumped to 82.5 early this month from 75.1 during November. That recovered the declines since the July peak and [...]
Consumers are feeling better about things. The index of consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey jumped to 82.5 early this month from 75.1 during November. That recovered the declines since the July peak and by far outpaced expectations for an uptick to 75.3. During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
The index of current economic conditions surged roughly ten points to 97.9 (12.5% y/y), nearly a post-recession high. The index of consumer expectations showed a lesser recovery to 72.7 and remained below the October '11 high.
These data are not seasonally adjusted and can be found in Haver's USECON and UMSCA databases.
Prices from a Monetary Perspective from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 82.5 | 75.1 | 73.2 | 72.9 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 97.9 | 88.0 | 89.9 | 87.0 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 72.7 | 66.8 | 62.5 | 63.8 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
