Global| Feb 03 2006U.S. Consumer Sentiment Slipped Late in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment for all of January fell a slight 0.3% from December to 91.2. The decline was due to a fall late in the month and compared to an initial read of 93.4. Consensus expectations [...]
The University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment for all of January fell a slight 0.3% from December to 91.2. The decline was due to a fall late in the month and compared to an initial read of 93.4. Consensus expectations had been for 93.0 for the full month.
During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The current conditions index rose just 1.1% compared to a mid-month 2.7% increase. The reading of buying conditions for large household goods rose less than initially estimated and the reading of personal finances showed the same, slight decline (-4.1% y/y). Consumers' assessment of gov't economic policy (-11.2% y/y) improved to the highest level since July.
Consumers' expectations slipped 1.6% instead of increasing that amount as indicated mid-month. Expectations for personal finances fell sharply (-9.8% y/y).
The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months increased to 3.8% from 3.5% expected mid-month.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 91.2 | 91.5 | -4.5% | 88.6 | 95.2 | 87.6 |
| Current Conditions | 110.3 | 109.1 | -0.5% | 105.9 | 105.6 | 97.2 |
| Expectations | 78.9 | 80.2 | -7.9% | 77.4 | 88.5 | 81.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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