Global| Jan 20 2006U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rose Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment in January rose another 2.1% to 93.4. The rise was the third off the October low which has totaled 25.9% and the gain surpassed Consensus expectations for an increase to [...]
The University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment in January rose another 2.1% to 93.4. The rise was the third off the October low which has totaled 25.9% and the gain surpassed Consensus expectations for an increase to 92.5.
During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The current conditions index rose 2.7% as the reading of buying conditions for large household goods rose sharply back to last year's high, though the reading of personal finances fell slightly (-4.1% y/y). Consumers' assessment of gov't economic policy (-12.2% y/y) improved to the highest level since October.
Consumers' expectations increased a moderate 1.6% following the 15.2% December spurt. Expected business conditions during the next year and during the net five years rose but expectations for personal finances gave back most of a December surge.
The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months fell to 3.5% from 4.1% and was below the 5.5% expected in October & September.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 93.4 | 91.5 | -2.2% | 88.6 | 95.2 | 87.6 |
| Current Conditions | 112.0 | 109.1 | 1.0% | 105.9 | 105.6 | 97.2 |
| Expectations | 81.5 | 80.2 | -4.9% | 77.4 | 88.5 | 81.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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