Global| Oct 29 2004U.S. Consumer Sentiment Recovered After Early October Slump
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The reading of consumer sentiment for the full month of October from the University of Michigan did fall 2.7% m/m to 91.7, but that reflected a sharp improvement from the mid-month read of a 7.1% plunge to 87.5. Consensus expectations [...]
The reading of consumer sentiment for the full month of October from the University of Michigan did fall 2.7% m/m to 91.7, but that reflected a sharp improvement from the mid-month read of a 7.1% plunge to 87.5. Consensus expectations for a reading of 88.0.
The continuing decline in claims for unemployment insurance may have bolstered confidence following earlier concerns over the War in Iraq, the rising price of gasoline and several hurricanes which hit Florida.
During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
The reading of current economic conditions improved 0.3% m/m versus the mid-month read of a 4.0% slump. Consumer expectations shaved the mid-month decline in half and fell 4.8% m/m.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 91.7 | 94.2 | 2.3% | 87.6 | 89.6 | 89.2 |
| Current Conditions | 104.0 | 103.7 | 4.1% | 97.2 | 97.5 | 100.1 |
| Consumer Expectations | 83.8 | 88.0 | 1.0% | 81.4 | 84.6 | 82.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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