Global| Oct 25 2013U.S. Consumer Sentiment Ratchets Further Downward
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer sentiment, as measured in the Reuters/University of Michigan survey, continues to move lower. It fell sharply during October to a reading of 73.2 (-11.4% y/y). That compares to 75.2 at mid-month and 77.5 during September. [...]
Consumer sentiment, as measured in the Reuters/University of Michigan survey, continues to move lower. It fell sharply during October to a reading of 73.2 (-11.4% y/y). That compares to 75.2 at mid-month and 77.5 during September. This latest level was the lowest since December and was weaker than Consensus expectations for 75.0. During the last ten years, there has been a 58% correlation between the level of sentiment and three-month growth in real PCE.
Worries about the future intensified as the expectations component fell further to 62.5 (-20.9% y/y), its lowest level since November 2011. In addition, the index of sentiment regarding current economic conditions fell to 89.9 from 92.6. That compares poorly to a slight uptick to 92.8 at mid-month, although it was 2.0% above October 2012.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct '12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 73.2 | 77.5 | 82.1 | 82.6 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 89.9 | 92.6 | 95.2 | 88.1 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 62.5 | 67.8 | 73.7 | 79.0 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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