Global| Jul 12 2013U.S. Consumer Sentiment Is Fairly Stable
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer remains upbeat. Consumer sentiment in mid-July fell marginally to 83.9 from 84.1 in June. The figure remained up, however, from its August 2011 low of 55.8 and was just slightly lower than its May peak of 84.5. Consensus [...]
The consumer remains upbeat. Consumer sentiment in mid-July fell marginally to 83.9 from 84.1 in June. The figure remained up, however, from its August 2011 low of 55.8 and was just slightly lower than its May peak of 84.5. Consensus expectations had been for a slight increase to 84.8. During the last ten years, there has been a 59% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
This month's slight decline owed to offsetting movements in the index components. The consumer expectations figure fell to 73.8 from 77.8. It nevertheless retained its recent improvement from an August 2012 low of 65.1 and an August 2011 nadir of 47.6. Countering this monthly decline was an increase in the current economic conditions index to a seven year high of 99.7.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The final monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Mid-July | June | May | July'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 83.9 | 84.1 | 84.5 | 72.3 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 99.7 | 93.8 | 98.0 | 82.7 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 73.8 | 77.8 | 75.8 | 65.6 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
