Global| Apr 15 2005U.S. Consumer Sentiment Down As Expectations Waned
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in April fell 4.2%. The m/m decline was the largest since last May, was much deeper than Consensus expectations for a more moderate decline and pulled Sentiment to [...]
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in April fell 4.2%. The m/m decline was the largest since last May, was much deeper than Consensus expectations for a more moderate decline and pulled Sentiment to its lowest level in nearly two years.
Sentiment has fallen in each of the last four months and is off 14.5% from the January '04 peak. During the last ten years there has been a 75% (inverse) correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the unemployment rate.
Consumer expectations fell a hard 4.6%. Down for the fourth straight month the figure is off 21.1% from the January '04 high. The expected change in real family income fell 12.2% to the lowest level since 1991. More unemployment was expected by the highest percentage since late 2003 and price inflation was expected to quicken.
The reading of current economic conditions fell 3.8% for the third consecutive monthly decline and the latest is off 5.1% from the 2004 peak. Fewer thought now was a good time for buying vehicles and fewer thought now was a good time for buying houses.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 88.7 | 92.6 | -5.8% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
| Current Conditions | 103.9 | 108.0 | -1.0% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
| Consumer Expectations | 79.0 | 82.8 | -9.5% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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