Global| Mar 24 2015U.S. Consumer Prices Increase With Energy Price Turnaround; Core Prices Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer price index gained 0.2% (0.0% y/y), the first increase in four months. While the rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey, a 0.2% increase in the core price index surpassed the average forecast [...]
A 1.0% increase in energy prices (-18.9% y/y) reflected a 2.4% rebound in gasoline prices (-32.8% y/y). Fuel oil prices gained 1.9% (-31.2% y/y) and electricity costs rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y). Natural gas prices declined 2.0% (-6.5% y/y).
Prices for goods excluding food & energy also showed improvement with a 0.2% gain (-0.5% y/y). The rise followed three consecutive months of decline and spread broadly amongst categories. Apparel prices increased a firm 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) led by a record 3.2% surge (0.1% y/y) in men's clothing prices. This was countered, however, by a 0.7% decline (-3.2% y/y) in women's apparel prices. Used vehicle prices jumped 1.0% (-2.9% y/y) and new vehicle prices gained 0.2% (0.6% y/y), the first rise in four months. Medical care goods prices improved 0.7% (3.9% y/y) after a 0.3% fall and education & communications goods prices slipped a lessened 0.1% (-4.0% y/y). Tobacco & smoking products prices rose 0.5% (2.6% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. Remaining weak were household appliance prices which fell 0.3% (-4.9% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. Furniture & bedding costs were off 0.4% (-1.5% y/y) and recreation goods prices declined 0.2% (-3.0% y/y).
Showing less strength in pricing power were core services prices which posted a 0.1% uptick (2.5% y/y), the weakest gain in six months. Medical care services prices declined 0.2% (+1.8% y/y), the only material decline since 1975. Shelter prices rose 0.2% (3.0% y/y). Owners' equivalent rents of primary residence costs increased 0.2% (2.7% y/y) but rents of primary residences increased 0.3%. The 3.5% y/y rise here was improved from 0.2% growth in 2010. Tuition costs rose an easier 0.2% (3.3% y/y), recreation services prices ticked 0.1% higher (1.6% y/y) but public transportation prices remained unchanged (-1.9% y/y).
Food prices improved 0.2% (3.0% y/y). Egg prices rebounded 2.1% (8.5% y/y) and nonalcoholic beverage prices increased 0.6% (1.8% y/y). Meat prices ticked up 0.1% (10.6% y/y) but dairy prices declined 1.0% (+2.1% y/y). Fruit & vegetable costs inched 0.3% lower (+1.1% y/y). Cereal & bakery product prices fell 0.2% (+0.9% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 1.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Food | 0.2 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Energy | 1.0 | -9.7 | -4.7 | -18.9 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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