Global| Nov 15 2012U.S. Consumer Prices Increase Marginally; Energy Prices Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer price inflation eased last month. The overall consumer price index ticked up an expected 0.1% (2.2% y/y) following two successive 0.6% increases. The easing was due to a 0.2% (4.0% y/y) decline in energy prices following two [...]
Consumer price inflation eased last month. The overall consumer price index ticked up an expected 0.1% (2.2% y/y) following two successive 0.6% increases. The easing was due to a 0.2% (4.0% y/y) decline in energy prices following two sharp monthly increases. Food price inflation, however, firmed a bit with a 0.2% rise (1.7% y/y). Prices excluding food & energy rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y) following three 0.1% monthly gains.
Energy prices moved 0.2% lower as gasoline prices fell 0.6% (+9.1% y/y). Fuel oil prices, however, rose 1.1% (5.6% y/y). Offsetting the energy price decline was a 0.2% increase in food prices. Meat, poultry & egg prices gained 0.8% (2.2% y/y) while dairy product prices also rose 0.8% (-1.1% y/y). These increases were offset by lower beverage costs (-0.2% y/y).
For goods alone, prices excluding food & energy fell 0.1% (+0.7% y/y). The decline mostly reflected a 0.9% decline (-2.1% y/y) in used car prices and a 0.1% dip (+1.0% y/y) in new vehicle costs. To the upside, apparel prices rose 0.7% (3.0% y/y) while appliance prices gained 0.5% (0.8% y/y).
Another 0.3% increase (2.5% y/y) in core service prices reflected an improved 0.3% rise (2.3% y/y) in shelter costs (32% of the CPI). Owners equivalent rent of primary residences rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y). The y/y increase compares to a low of -0.3% in early 2010. Public transportation prices, however, were even stronger with a 1.7% (0.6% y/y) increase and education costs rose 0.4% (3.6% y/y). Both medical care service prices (3.9% y/y) and recreation services prices were unchanged (3.3% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index(%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Food | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Energy | -0.2 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 15.2 | 9.6 | -18.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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