Global| Nov 20 2013U.S. Consumer Prices Dip With Lower Energy Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The October consumer price index slipped 0.1% (1.0% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% increase during September. Expectations had been for no change in prices. Consumer prices excluding food and energy matched expectations and rose a [...]
The October consumer price index slipped 0.1% (1.0% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% increase during September. Expectations had been for no change in prices. Consumer prices excluding food and energy matched expectations and rose a minimal 0.1% (1.7% y/y).
A 1.7% decline (-4.9% y/y) in energy prices held back the CPI. Gasoline prices declined 2.9% (-10.1% y/y) and natural gas costs dropped 1.0% (+4.4% y/y). Fuel oil prices were off 0.6% (-4.6% y/y) but electricity prices ticked up 0.1% (3.0% y/y). Food prices rose a minimal 0.1% (1.3% y/y). Meat, poultry & fish prices gained 0.6% (3.0% y/y) while fruit & vegetable costs improved 0.2% (2.7% y/y). Countering these gains were cereal & bakery product costs which were off 0.4% (+0.9% y/y) and dairy product prices that slipped 0.2% (-0.2% y/y).
Prices for goods less food and energy slipped 0.1% (-0.1% y/y). Appliance prices were unchanged (-2.5% y/y), new vehicle prices slipped 0.1% (+1.0% y/y) and apparel prices fell 0.5% (-0.2% y/y). Furniture costs slipped 0.1% (-2.2% y/y) and recreational product prices were unchanged (2.0% y/y). Working 0.3% higher (0.5% y/y) were medical care product prices.
Core services prices rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y) for the sixth consecutive month. Public transportation costs remained strong and posted a 2.2% jump (2.5% y/y) and recreation services prices rose 0.2% (1.8% y/y). Shelter costs (32% of the CPI) gained 0.1% (2.3% y/y) while owners equivalent rent of primary residences rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y). Medical care costs slipped 0.1% (+2.9% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Food | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Energy | -1.7 | 0.8 | -0.3 | -4.9 | 0.9 | 15.2 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
