Global| Aug 15 2012U.S. Consumer Prices Are Unchanged Again; Core Price Gain Slows Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer prices were unchanged last month as they were in June. A 0.2% increase was expected. The year-to-year increase fell to 1.4%, down from its peak of 3.9% last September. A 0.1% increase (2.1% y/y) in prices less food & energy [...]
Consumer prices were unchanged last month as they were in June. A 0.2% increase was expected. The year-to-year increase fell to 1.4%, down from its peak of 3.9% last September. A 0.1% increase (2.1% y/y) in prices less food & energy was down from four consecutive 0.2% monthly gains. Another 0.2% increase was expected for July. The y/y increase slowed to 2.1% and the three month gain of 2.0% (AR) was its weakest since February.
Energy prices fell another 0.3% (-5.1% y/y) though gasoline prices inched up 0.3% (-5.5% y/y). Electricity prices were off 1.3% (-1.3% y/y) and fuel oil costs fell a not seasonally adjusted 0.5% (5.6% y/y). Natural gas prices were 0.2% lower (-12.7% y/y). Food prices ticked up 0.1% (2.3% y/y) as meat, poultry & fish costs rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) while fruits & vegetable prices fell 0.3% (-0.7% y/y). Elsewhere, cereals & bakery products costs rose 0.3% (2.9% y/y) but dairy product prices declined 0.5% (-0.2% y/y).
For goods alone, prices less food & energy were unchanged. The 12-month increase fell further to 1.2%, its least since April of last year. Apparel prices rose 0.2%. The 3.0% y/y gain was off its high but remained well above the 0.5% decline in 2010. Furniture & bedding costs increased 0.4% (1.8% y/y) but appliance prices fell 0.5% (+2.4% y/y). New motor vehicle prices slipped 0.1% (0.8% y/y).
The minimal 0.1% increase (2.5% y/y) in core service prices reflected another 0.1% rise (2.1% y/y) in shelter costs (32% of the CPI). Owners equivalent rent of primary residences rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y). The y/y increase compares to a low of -0.3% in early 2010. Education costs rose 0.5% (4.2 y/y) while medical care service prices increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y). Public transportation prices declined 1.5% (+0.1% y/y) and recreation services prices ticked up 0.1% (3.4% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index(%) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Food | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Energy | -0.3 | -1.4 | -4.3 | -5.1 | 15.2 | 9.6 | -18.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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